股票 · 期权分析
ORCL 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $117.98
- 30D ATM IV
- 62.09%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 92
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +4.04
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 1.007
▲ +2.29 pts 较前一交易日
概览
ORCL 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 62.1%,相当于未来一个月约 ±17.8% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 92% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 4.04 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
它的下一次财报在 2026-12-09(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 8 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±12.6% 的波动,ORCL 实际平均波动 10.6%,8 次中有 5 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 62.09%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +4.04
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.98
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 1.007
对应 30 天内约 ±17.8% 的波动，平常一天约 ±3.9%。
高于过去一年中 92% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 4.04 个点。
高于过去一年中 77% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.98 个点。
90 天与 30 天期权的隐含波动率大致相同。
高于过去一年中 46% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 92%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 74%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 94%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 76%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $117.98
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $117.91
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 66.01%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 62.50%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 61.63%
- 使用的到期日数
- 14
- 总未平仓量
- 2,628,961
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.06
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 348 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 62.09% | +4.04 | 1.007 | $117.98 |
| 2026-11-09 | 59.80% | +5.69 | 1.037 | $119.79 |
| 2026-11-06 | 62.05% | +7.89 | 1.020 | $116.10 |
| 2026-11-05 | 65.09% | +8.64 | 0.985 | $115.16 |
| 2026-11-04 | 57.23% | +4.32 | 1.041 | $123.73 |
| 2026-11-03 | 58.97% | +5.41 | 1.024 | $126.19 |
| 2026-11-02 | 59.71% | +4.69 | 1.023 | $119.22 |
| 2026-10-30 | 55.09% | +3.95 | 1.062 | $130.67 |
| 2026-10-29 | 51.51% | +0.80 | 1.086 | $139.56 |
| 2026-10-28 | 54.88% | +0.31 | 1.039 | $144.54 |
| 2026-10-27 | 57.15% | +0.41 | 1.034 | $130.53 |
| 2026-10-26 | 57.31% | +1.69 | 1.018 | $126.06 |
| 2026-10-23 | 58.94% | +2.67 | 1.003 | $126.16 |
| 2026-10-22 | 60.14% | +3.46 | 0.982 | $125.54 |
| 2026-10-21 | 57.92% | +1.27 | 1.001 | $129.13 |
| 2026-10-20 | 57.98% | +1.01 | 0.993 | $131.14 |
| 2026-10-19 | 57.22% | +2.44 | 1.017 | $129.59 |
| 2026-10-16 | 58.78% | +3.57 | 1.003 | $128.23 |
| 2026-10-15 | 57.35% | +0.29 | 1.010 | $134.47 |
| 2026-10-14 | 57.75% | +0.97 | 0.998 | $130.55 |
| 2026-10-13 | 55.85% | -2.21 | 1.013 | $143.20 |
| 2026-10-09 | 53.68% | -1.93 | 1.038 | $141.40 |
| 2026-10-08 | 54.54% | -1.53 | 1.021 | $135.69 |
| 2026-10-07 | 53.60% | -2.98 | 1.048 | $143.56 |
| 2026-10-06 | 52.83% | -2.85 | 1.049 | $144.77 |
| 2026-10-05 | 52.88% | -2.25 | 1.051 | $142.48 |
| 2026-10-02 | 52.47% | -1.91 | 1.075 | $142.30 |
| 2026-10-01 | 53.25% | -2.83 | 1.064 | $138.07 |
| 2026-09-30 | 53.77% | -2.69 | 1.059 | $137.30 |
| 2026-09-29 | 54.42% | -2.69 | 1.041 | $137.79 |
| 2026-09-28 | 52.40% | -3.00 | 1.081 | $132.60 |
| 2026-09-25 | 49.66% | -2.51 | 1.131 | $137.10 |
| 2026-09-24 | 49.53% | -1.54 | 1.149 | $139.54 |
| 2026-09-23 | 48.59% | -1.55 | 1.151 | $144.56 |
| 2026-09-22 | 49.67% | -2.41 | 1.150 | $149.20 |
| 2026-09-21 | 49.63% | -2.17 | 1.145 | $148.56 |
| 2026-09-18 | 48.05% | -1.00 | 1.166 | $147.61 |
| 2026-09-17 | 49.33% | -0.71 | 1.140 | $150.59 |
| 2026-09-16 | 50.56% | -0.07 | 1.122 | $143.16 |
| 2026-09-15 | 49.98% | -0.26 | 1.110 | $140.35 |
| 2026-09-14 | 49.76% | +0.68 | 1.115 | $144.79 |
| 2026-09-11 | 49.59% | -1.91 | 1.105 | $150.28 |
| 2026-09-10 | 75.01% | -6.27 | 0.859 | $152.94 |
| 2026-09-09 | 73.09% | -4.58 | 0.872 | $161.63 |
| 2026-09-08 | 71.77% | -3.97 | 0.893 | $162.52 |
| 2026-09-04 | 69.32% | -3.71 | 0.889 | $158.78 |
| 2026-09-03 | 66.38% | -4.10 | 0.915 | $154.04 |
| 2026-09-02 | 65.92% | -2.93 | 0.911 | $145.75 |
| 2026-09-01 | 66.94% | -5.91 | 0.917 | $141.32 |
| 2026-08-31 | 68.05% | -3.21 | 0.907 | $149.12 |
| 2026-08-28 | 67.45% | -2.42 | 0.910 | $150.85 |
| 2026-08-27 | 69.59% | -0.39 | 0.903 | $151.94 |
| 2026-08-26 | 69.87% | -1.54 | 0.890 | $148.87 |
| 2026-08-25 | 69.34% | +1.01 | 0.901 | $144.76 |
| 2026-08-24 | 69.18% | -2.39 | 0.905 | $142.45 |
| 2026-08-21 | 70.18% | -2.07 | 0.906 | $146.47 |
| 2026-08-20 | 69.79% | -1.59 | 0.895 | $142.07 |
| 2026-08-19 | 70.63% | -1.34 | 0.894 | $143.81 |
| 2026-08-18 | 69.03% | -2.81 | 0.902 | $142.79 |
| 2026-08-17 | 69.68% | -3.41 | 0.891 | $146.65 |
| 2025-10-22 | 47.48% | +0.79 | 1.062 | $272.66 |
| 2025-10-21 | 46.36% | +1.20 | 1.084 | $275.15 |
| 2025-10-20 | 49.07% | +1.65 | 1.065 | $277.18 |
| 2025-10-17 | 50.25% | +2.21 | 1.048 | $291.31 |
| 2025-10-16 | 54.14% | +0.50 | 0.996 | $313.00 |
| 2025-10-15 | 54.47% | +0.46 | 1.001 | $303.62 |
| 2025-10-14 | 56.12% | +0.47 | 0.970 | $299.00 |
| 2025-10-10 | 57.77% | +1.74 | 0.961 | $292.96 |
| 2025-10-09 | 53.78% | -0.44 | 0.987 | $296.96 |
| 2025-10-08 | 52.46% | +1.65 | 1.001 | $288.63 |
| 2025-10-07 | 53.32% | +0.62 | 0.988 | $284.24 |
| 2025-10-06 | 51.60% | -0.68 | 1.007 | $291.59 |
| 2025-10-03 | 50.07% | -0.77 | 1.022 | $286.14 |
| 2025-10-02 | 51.43% | -0.71 | 1.014 | $288.78 |
| 2025-10-01 | 52.05% | -0.54 | 1.007 | $289.01 |
| 2025-09-30 | 51.69% | -0.22 | 1.001 | $281.24 |
| 2025-09-29 | 52.06% | -1.39 | 0.997 | $282.76 |
| 2025-09-26 | 52.34% | -0.77 | 1.028 | $283.46 |
| 2025-09-25 | 56.26% | -1.09 | 0.997 | $291.33 |
| 2025-09-24 | 55.75% | -1.36 | 0.991 | $308.46 |
| 2025-09-23 | 55.45% | -0.92 | 0.995 | $313.83 |
| 2025-09-22 | 56.14% | -2.31 | 0.976 | $328.15 |
| 2025-09-19 | 52.77% | -3.59 | 1.000 | $308.66 |
| 2025-09-18 | 51.87% | -3.01 | 0.996 | $296.62 |
| 2025-09-17 | 53.01% | -2.71 | 0.975 | $301.41 |
| 2025-09-16 | 53.07% | -2.20 | 0.976 | $306.65 |
| 2025-09-15 | 49.16% | -1.53 | 1.012 | $302.14 |
| 2025-09-12 | 44.09% | +0.96 | 1.072 | $292.18 |
| 2025-09-11 | 44.32% | +0.70 | 1.065 | $307.86 |
| 2025-09-10 | 49.42% | +0.28 | 0.982 | $328.33 |
| 2025-09-09 | 54.15% | +1.37 | 0.877 | $241.51 |
| 2025-09-08 | 53.49% | +1.74 | 0.861 | $238.48 |
| 2025-09-05 | 52.64% | +2.37 | 0.865 | $232.80 |
| 2025-09-04 | 51.02% | +3.47 | 0.870 | $223.00 |
| 2025-09-03 | 51.74% | +5.18 | 0.878 | $223.45 |
| 2025-09-02 | 52.46% | +1.02 | 0.868 | $225.30 |
| 2025-08-29 | 52.37% | +1.84 | 0.859 | $226.13 |
| 2025-08-28 | 51.33% | +1.88 | 0.859 | $240.32 |
| 2025-08-27 | 55.39% | +0.44 | 0.802 | $235.81 |
| 2025-08-26 | 52.77% | +4.46 | 0.846 | $234.21 |
| 2025-08-25 | 52.41% | +2.09 | 0.836 | $235.41 |
| 2025-08-22 | 52.38% | +2.50 | 0.840 | $236.37 |
| 2025-08-21 | 53.15% | +2.86 | 0.835 | $233.16 |
| 2025-08-20 | 52.93% | +2.61 | 0.835 | $235.06 |
| 2025-08-19 | 54.37% | +3.03 | 0.823 | $234.62 |
| 2025-08-18 | 51.07% | +2.99 | 0.838 | $249.07 |
| 2025-08-15 | 51.17% | +3.05 | 0.849 | $248.28 |
| 2025-08-14 | 50.99% | +2.50 | 0.845 | $244.96 |
| 2025-08-13 | 51.79% | +3.12 | 0.834 | $244.18 |
| 2025-08-12 | 47.55% | +3.56 | 0.897 | $253.86 |
| 2025-08-11 | 47.04% | +4.81 | 0.905 | $252.68 |
| 2025-08-08 | 39.67% | +4.55 | 1.073 | $250.05 |
| 2025-08-07 | 39.53% | +4.10 | 1.109 | $249.39 |
| 2025-08-06 | 35.50% | +3.23 | 1.204 | $256.43 |
| 2025-08-05 | 35.93% | +2.48 | 1.194 | $255.67 |
| 2025-08-04 | 36.20% | +3.15 | 1.147 | $252.53 |
| 2025-08-01 | 36.24% | +4.12 | 1.174 | $244.42 |
| 2025-07-31 | 35.17% | +2.73 | 1.199 | $253.77 |
| 2025-07-30 | 33.97% | +2.71 | 1.196 | $250.60 |
| 2025-07-29 | 32.97% | +1.76 | 1.231 | $249.98 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 348 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 348 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 82.98% | 68.28% | 62.38% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 82.01% | 67.46% | 61.51% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 82.04% | 66.80% | 61.08% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 81.17% | 66.55% | 60.95% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 81.43% | 66.50% | 61.01% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 81.48% | 66.80% | 60.97% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 81.66% | 66.95% | 61.22% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 81.74% | 67.26% | 61.78% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 82.09% | 68.04% | 62.00% |
| ATM | 82.11% | 68.03% | 62.38% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 82.57% | 69.16% | 62.64% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 83.04% | 69.48% | 63.07% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 83.61% | 69.98% | 63.45% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 84.37% | 70.87% | 64.09% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 84.36% | 71.78% | 64.85% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 85.48% | 72.42% | 65.68% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 86.18% | 73.42% | 66.90% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 88.65% | 75.31% | 68.90% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 93.78% | 79.35% | 72.45% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $117.50 | 82.11% | 84.36% | 81.43% | +2.93 | +0.78 | 56 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $117.67 | 68.03% | 71.78% | 66.50% | +5.27 | +1.11 | 62 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $117.67 | 62.38% | 64.85% | 61.01% | +3.84 | +0.54 | 67 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $117.80 | 61.99% | 64.72% | 60.21% | +4.51 | +0.47 | 63 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $117.92 | 62.10% | 65.14% | 61.16% | +3.98 | +1.05 | 57 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $117.94 | 71.98% | 74.76% | 70.24% | +4.52 | +0.52 | 41 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $118.15 | 69.07% | 72.57% | 67.63% | +4.94 | +1.04 | 51 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $118.14 | 65.23% | 68.77% | 63.52% | +5.26 | +0.92 | 42 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $118.56 | 61.66% | 65.05% | 60.30% | +4.75 | +1.02 | 29 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $118.93 | 63.62% | 66.31% | 61.49% | +4.82 | +0.27 | 37 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $119.06 | 62.04% | 65.07% | 60.19% | +4.88 | +0.59 | 31 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $119.87 | 61.11% | 64.62% | 59.44% | +5.18 | +0.91 | 45 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $120.57 | 60.80% | 62.89% | 58.64% | +4.25 | -0.04 | 43 |
| 2027-10-15 | 339 | $121.30 | 59.58% | 62.59% | 57.83% | +4.76 | +0.63 | 41 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
14 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $117.50 | 82.11% | $117.83 | 56 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $117.67 | 68.03% | $118.42 | 62 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $117.67 | 62.38% | $118.75 | 67 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $117.80 | 61.99% | $119.30 | 63 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $117.92 | 62.10% | $119.87 | 57 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $117.94 | 71.98% | $121.17 | 41 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $118.15 | 69.07% | $121.60 | 51 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $118.14 | 65.23% | $122.77 | 42 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $118.56 | 61.66% | $124.96 | 29 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $118.93 | 63.62% | $127.75 | 37 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $119.06 | 62.04% | $129.33 | 31 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $119.87 | 61.11% | $134.08 | 45 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $120.57 | 60.80% | $141.14 | 43 |
| 2027-10-15 | 339 天 | $121.30 | 59.58% | $143.04 | 41 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 62.09%
- 60 天
- 66.01%
- 90 天
- 62.50%
- 180 天
- 61.63%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 348 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 8 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 8 次中 5 次
- 63% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 12.6%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 10.6%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | 收盘后 | 15.4% | -1.7% | 0.11× |
| 2026-09-09 | 未说明时间 | 14.9% | -5.4% | 0.36× |
| 2026-09-08 | 未说明时间 | 14.6% | -0.5% | 0.04× |
| 2026-06-10 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-03-10 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-12-10 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-09-09 | 收盘后 | 12.2% | -39.3% | 3.21× |
| 2025-06-11 | 收盘后 | 9.4% | -16.9% | 1.80× |
| 2025-03-10 | 收盘后 | 13.1% | -3.1% | 0.24× |
| 2024-12-09 | 收盘后 | 11.4% | -6.7% | 0.58× |
| 2024-09-09 | 收盘后 | 9.7% | +11.4% | 1.18× |
| 2024-06-11 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-03-11 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-12-11 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-09-11 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。