股票 · 期权分析
PG 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $168.66
- 30D ATM IV
- 20.60%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 67
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +1.63
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.993
▲ +0.45 pts 较前一交易日
概览
PG 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 20.6%,相当于未来一个月约 ±5.9% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 222 个交易日中 67% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 1.63 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-22(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 7 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±3.7% 的波动,PG 实际平均波动 1.9%,7 次中有 6 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 20.60%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +1.63
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- -0.11
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.993
对应 30 天内约 ±5.9% 的波动，平常一天约 ±1.3%。
高于过去一年中 67% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 1.63 个点。
高于过去一年中 21% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值低 0.11 个点。
90 天与 30 天期权的隐含波动率大致相同。
高于过去一年中 44% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 222 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 67%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 39%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 74%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 40%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $168.66
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $169.57
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 19.54%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 20.46%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 21.10%
- 使用的到期日数
- 12
- 总未平仓量
- 325,535
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.40
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 348 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 20.60% | +1.63 | 0.993 | $168.66 |
| 2026-11-09 | 20.15% | +1.52 | 1.000 | $168.32 |
| 2026-11-06 | 20.89% | +1.46 | 1.006 | $165.40 |
| 2026-11-05 | 21.07% | +1.81 | 0.969 | $167.10 |
| 2026-11-04 | 18.79% | +1.69 | 1.027 | $167.32 |
| 2026-11-03 | 20.76% | +1.10 | 0.939 | $162.06 |
| 2026-11-02 | 19.94% | +1.39 | 0.981 | $163.56 |
| 2026-10-30 | 19.23% | +1.08 | 0.998 | $161.57 |
| 2026-10-29 | 17.67% | +1.13 | 1.037 | $160.59 |
| 2026-10-28 | 17.41% | +1.16 | 1.071 | $158.26 |
| 2026-10-27 | 17.44% | +0.29 | 1.052 | $159.23 |
| 2026-10-26 | 18.80% | +0.81 | 0.977 | $159.92 |
| 2026-10-23 | 18.82% | +0.93 | 0.970 | $161.02 |
| 2026-10-22 | 20.57% | +0.77 | 0.925 | $165.59 |
| 2026-10-21 | 21.76% | +1.72 | 0.882 | $156.84 |
| 2026-10-20 | 21.88% | +1.12 | 0.892 | $159.32 |
| 2026-10-19 | 21.95% | +0.72 | 0.896 | $157.69 |
| 2026-10-16 | 22.26% | +1.86 | 0.902 | $159.35 |
| 2026-10-15 | 22.03% | +1.73 | 0.889 | $157.08 |
| 2026-10-14 | 22.92% | +1.74 | 0.887 | $156.53 |
| 2026-10-13 | 22.56% | +1.56 | 0.888 | $153.04 |
| 2026-10-09 | 22.09% | +2.29 | 0.911 | $151.23 |
| 2026-10-08 | 22.73% | +1.32 | 0.897 | $150.59 |
| 2026-10-07 | 22.02% | +3.17 | 0.924 | $147.82 |
| 2026-10-06 | 23.20% | +0.92 | 0.881 | $148.41 |
| 2026-10-05 | 23.62% | +1.67 | 0.873 | $145.94 |
| 2026-10-02 | 23.57% | +1.51 | 0.890 | $144.91 |
| 2026-10-01 | 24.11% | +2.31 | 0.889 | $143.95 |
| 2026-09-30 | 23.45% | +1.98 | 0.879 | $145.28 |
| 2026-09-29 | 23.23% | +1.70 | 0.896 | $148.32 |
| 2026-09-28 | 23.27% | +2.32 | 0.894 | $149.03 |
| 2026-09-25 | 23.23% | +1.91 | 0.892 | $146.23 |
| 2026-09-24 | 22.45% | +2.33 | 0.919 | $145.68 |
| 2026-09-23 | 22.31% | +1.28 | 0.925 | $147.39 |
| 2026-09-22 | 21.63% | +2.00 | 0.947 | $148.22 |
| 2026-09-21 | 21.21% | +1.44 | 0.992 | $146.08 |
| 2026-09-18 | 20.85% | +0.97 | 1.016 | $146.39 |
| 2026-09-17 | 19.00% | +0.89 | 1.112 | $147.55 |
| 2026-09-16 | 18.93% | +1.10 | 1.136 | $147.02 |
| 2026-09-15 | 21.75% | +1.64 | 0.984 | $146.67 |
| 2026-09-14 | 20.15% | +1.64 | 1.069 | $146.13 |
| 2026-09-11 | 18.86% | +2.10 | 1.137 | $145.27 |
| 2026-09-10 | 19.34% | +0.63 | 1.112 | $142.97 |
| 2026-09-09 | 19.57% | +1.45 | 1.114 | $142.64 |
| 2026-09-08 | 19.27% | +1.04 | 1.150 | $145.58 |
| 2026-09-04 | 18.06% | +0.92 | 1.181 | $146.44 |
| 2026-09-03 | 18.64% | +0.68 | 1.148 | $146.92 |
| 2026-09-02 | 18.50% | +1.22 | 1.151 | $147.64 |
| 2026-09-01 | 19.92% | +2.59 | 1.062 | $146.21 |
| 2026-08-31 | 19.54% | +0.92 | 1.076 | $145.12 |
| 2026-08-28 | 17.42% | +0.86 | 1.200 | $143.78 |
| 2026-08-27 | 18.22% | +0.61 | 1.158 | $143.14 |
| 2026-08-26 | 18.12% | +1.78 | 1.171 | $145.00 |
| 2026-08-25 | 18.28% | +1.44 | 1.176 | $145.40 |
| 2026-08-24 | 18.16% | +2.66 | 1.182 | $146.60 |
| 2026-08-21 | — | — | — | $144.68 |
| 2026-08-20 | 18.76% | +0.63 | 1.141 | $142.97 |
| 2026-08-19 | — | — | — | $144.38 |
| 2026-08-18 | 18.26% | +1.24 | 1.178 | $143.45 |
| 2026-08-17 | 19.06% | +0.20 | 1.106 | $143.12 |
| 2025-10-22 | 22.98% | +1.86 | 0.860 | $152.20 |
| 2025-10-21 | 22.06% | +3.19 | 0.889 | $151.62 |
| 2025-10-20 | 22.50% | +2.78 | 0.887 | $151.96 |
| 2025-10-17 | 22.69% | +2.45 | 0.900 | $151.40 |
| 2025-10-16 | 24.50% | +2.97 | 0.885 | $149.60 |
| 2025-10-15 | 23.46% | +2.09 | 0.894 | $147.42 |
| 2025-10-14 | 23.67% | +2.25 | 0.862 | $149.16 |
| 2025-10-10 | 24.50% | +2.71 | 0.892 | $149.69 |
| 2025-10-09 | 22.96% | +2.48 | 0.905 | $150.58 |
| 2025-10-08 | 22.37% | +2.75 | 0.925 | $150.69 |
| 2025-10-07 | 22.59% | +2.97 | 0.910 | $152.54 |
| 2025-10-06 | 22.93% | +2.85 | 0.894 | $150.41 |
| 2025-10-03 | 21.73% | +3.35 | 0.924 | $152.27 |
| 2025-10-02 | 21.89% | +4.09 | 0.914 | $152.05 |
| 2025-10-01 | 22.16% | +2.66 | 0.897 | $153.18 |
| 2025-09-30 | 21.78% | +2.96 | 0.940 | $153.65 |
| 2025-09-29 | 21.41% | +3.24 | 0.924 | $153.53 |
| 2025-09-26 | 20.23% | +3.21 | 0.975 | $152.50 |
| 2025-09-25 | 22.72% | +3.05 | 0.894 | $152.15 |
| 2025-09-24 | 21.46% | +0.40 | 0.942 | $152.42 |
| 2025-09-23 | 22.08% | +3.70 | 0.915 | $152.50 |
| 2025-09-22 | 21.70% | +3.06 | 0.936 | $153.07 |
| 2025-09-19 | 19.05% | +3.01 | 1.029 | $156.04 |
| 2025-09-18 | 18.77% | +2.74 | 1.045 | $157.32 |
| 2025-09-17 | 18.92% | +2.51 | 1.009 | $160.33 |
| 2025-09-16 | 18.31% | +2.38 | 1.148 | $158.05 |
| 2025-09-15 | 17.98% | +2.37 | 1.090 | $156.83 |
| 2025-09-12 | 18.09% | +2.51 | 1.082 | $157.90 |
| 2025-09-11 | 17.99% | +2.93 | 1.083 | $158.63 |
| 2025-09-10 | 18.48% | +2.32 | 1.069 | $157.35 |
| 2025-09-09 | 18.17% | +1.75 | 1.084 | $159.46 |
| 2025-09-08 | 17.52% | +2.85 | 1.119 | $159.01 |
| 2025-09-05 | 17.30% | +2.61 | 1.104 | $160.02 |
| 2025-09-04 | 17.15% | +2.34 | 1.120 | $159.19 |
| 2025-09-03 | 17.25% | +1.79 | 1.139 | $158.17 |
| 2025-09-02 | 17.34% | +1.89 | 1.166 | $157.99 |
| 2025-08-29 | 16.64% | +2.52 | 1.176 | $157.04 |
| 2025-08-28 | 18.05% | +2.74 | 1.080 | $155.65 |
| 2025-08-27 | 17.81% | +2.62 | 1.096 | $156.96 |
| 2025-08-26 | 17.89% | +2.65 | 1.077 | $155.97 |
| 2025-08-25 | 17.97% | +2.55 | 1.084 | $156.15 |
| 2025-08-22 | 16.45% | +2.62 | 1.133 | $158.67 |
| 2025-08-21 | 17.70% | +3.07 | 1.108 | $158.73 |
| 2025-08-20 | 17.08% | +2.50 | 1.151 | $159.51 |
| 2025-08-19 | 17.13% | +2.61 | 1.126 | $158.40 |
| 2025-08-18 | 17.22% | +2.69 | 1.102 | $155.72 |
| 2025-08-15 | 16.32% | +2.50 | 1.176 | $154.36 |
| 2025-08-14 | 17.24% | +3.18 | 1.130 | $153.74 |
| 2025-08-13 | 16.58% | +2.49 | 1.145 | $155.41 |
| 2025-08-12 | 16.31% | +2.28 | 1.129 | $155.09 |
| 2025-08-11 | 17.31% | +2.62 | 1.119 | $154.98 |
| 2025-08-08 | 16.17% | +2.75 | 1.108 | $153.51 |
| 2025-08-07 | 17.01% | +2.31 | 1.122 | $153.49 |
| 2025-08-06 | 17.07% | +2.68 | 1.117 | $152.86 |
| 2025-08-05 | 17.65% | +2.48 | 1.092 | $150.51 |
| 2025-08-04 | 17.34% | +3.05 | 1.092 | $150.76 |
| 2025-08-01 | 18.39% | +2.79 | 1.078 | $150.65 |
| 2025-07-31 | 18.64% | +3.22 | 1.070 | $150.47 |
| 2025-07-30 | 17.76% | +2.26 | 1.046 | $152.88 |
| 2025-07-29 | 17.56% | +2.37 | 1.085 | $156.61 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 348 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 348 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 25.80% | — | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 25.32% | 22.32% | 20.65% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 24.38% | 21.85% | 20.43% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 24.09% | 21.73% | 19.95% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 23.93% | 21.70% | 19.89% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 23.82% | 21.69% | 19.91% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 23.76% | 21.81% | 19.94% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 23.75% | 22.01% | 20.03% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 23.85% | 22.17% | 20.13% |
| ATM | 24.06% | 22.29% | 20.20% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 24.33% | 22.39% | 20.27% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 24.64% | 22.52% | 20.36% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 24.94% | 22.70% | 20.46% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 25.23% | 22.94% | 20.59% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 25.56% | 23.29% | 20.77% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 25.97% | 23.96% | 21.05% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 26.56% | 24.93% | 21.61% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 27.54% | 26.24% | 22.46% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 29.62% | 27.42% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $168.92 | 24.06% | 25.56% | 23.93% | +1.63 | +0.69 | 7 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $169.04 | 22.29% | 23.29% | 21.70% | +1.60 | +0.21 | 12 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $169.16 | 20.20% | 20.77% | 19.89% | +0.88 | +0.13 | 10 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $169.27 | 20.24% | 20.75% | 19.93% | +0.82 | +0.09 | 9 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $169.62 | 20.65% | 21.37% | 19.64% | +1.73 | -0.14 | 10 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $169.47 | 19.46% | 20.48% | 19.41% | +1.07 | +0.49 | 12 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $170.13 | 19.55% | 20.52% | 19.08% | +1.44 | +0.26 | 13 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $169.80 | 20.72% | 22.03% | 19.81% | +2.22 | +0.20 | 11 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $170.13 | 20.97% | 22.18% | 20.14% | +2.04 | +0.18 | 12 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $170.81 | 20.90% | 22.29% | 19.81% | +2.48 | +0.15 | 14 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $171.36 | 21.33% | 22.76% | 20.36% | +2.40 | +0.23 | 16 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $172.34 | 21.14% | 22.64% | 20.54% | +2.11 | +0.45 | 19 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
12 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $168.92 | 24.06% | $168.96 | 7 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $169.04 | 22.29% | $169.16 | 12 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $169.16 | 20.20% | $169.32 | 10 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $169.27 | 20.24% | $169.50 | 9 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $169.62 | 20.65% | $169.93 | 10 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $169.47 | 19.46% | $169.81 | 12 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $170.13 | 19.55% | $170.71 | 13 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $169.80 | 20.72% | $170.81 | 11 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $170.13 | 20.97% | $171.45 | 12 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $170.81 | 20.90% | $172.43 | 14 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $171.36 | 21.33% | $173.72 | 16 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $172.34 | 21.14% | $175.65 | 19 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 20.60%
- 60 天
- 19.54%
- 90 天
- 20.46%
- 180 天
- 21.10%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 348 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 7 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 7 次中 6 次
- 86% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 3.7%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 1.9%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | 未说明时间 | 1.4% | +0.6% | 0.44× |
| 2026-10-23 | 未说明时间 | 2.7% | -0.7% | 0.25× |
| 2026-10-22 | 开盘前 | 3.9% | +5.6% | 1.41× |
| 2026-07-29 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-24 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-22 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-24 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-29 | 开盘前 | 4.4% | -0.3% | 0.07× |
| 2025-04-24 | 开盘前 | 4.7% | -3.7% | 0.79× |
| 2025-01-22 | 开盘前 | 4.7% | +1.9% | 0.39× |
| 2024-10-18 | 开盘前 | 4.0% | -0.6% | 0.14× |
| 2024-07-30 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-19 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-23 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-18 | 未说明时间 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。