股票 · 期权分析
PLTR 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月10日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $168.82
- 30D ATM IV
- 50.35%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 25
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +6.05
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 1.061
▼ -0.04 pts 较前一交易日
概览
PLTR 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 50.3%,相当于未来一个月约 ±14.4% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 25% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 6.05 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
较长期限的期权波动率更高:90 天波动率比 30 天高 6%。
它的下一次财报在 2027-02-01(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 5 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±16.5% 的波动,PLTR 实际平均波动 94.4%,5 次中有 2 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 50.35%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +6.05
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.37
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 1.061
对应 30 天内约 ±14.4% 的波动，平常一天约 ±3.2%。
高于过去一年中 25% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 6.05 个点。
高于过去一年中 81% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.37 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天高 6%。
高于过去一年中 48% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 25%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 10%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 26%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 17%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $168.82
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $167.93
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 49.63%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 53.44%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 54.14%
- 使用的到期日数
- 14
- 总未平仓量
- 2,286,068
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.98
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 336 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-10 | 50.35% | +6.05 | 1.061 | $168.82 |
| 2026-11-09 | 50.39% | +5.69 | 1.035 | $169.20 |
| 2026-11-06 | 54.69% | +8.64 | 0.994 | $160.38 |
| 2026-11-05 | 58.57% | +10.24 | 0.951 | $154.99 |
| 2026-11-04 | 48.67% | +3.28 | 1.038 | $171.70 |
| 2026-11-03 | 51.74% | +4.09 | 0.998 | $175.40 |
| 2026-11-02 | 70.83% | +9.55 | 0.818 | $178.34 |
| 2026-10-30 | 70.28% | +8.34 | 0.818 | $184.11 |
| 2026-10-29 | 64.52% | +3.90 | 0.848 | $196.42 |
| 2026-10-28 | 61.44% | +3.73 | 0.868 | $196.81 |
| 2026-10-27 | 62.01% | +4.08 | 0.868 | $198.73 |
| 2026-10-26 | 63.50% | +4.70 | 0.865 | $198.84 |
| 2026-10-23 | 64.63% | +5.43 | 0.850 | $196.75 |
| 2026-10-22 | 64.81% | +5.56 | 0.845 | $196.19 |
| 2026-10-21 | 61.84% | +4.53 | 0.855 | $201.72 |
| 2026-10-20 | 63.40% | +4.96 | 0.839 | $192.60 |
| 2026-10-19 | 62.78% | +5.39 | 0.845 | $194.15 |
| 2026-10-16 | 64.36% | +5.47 | 0.823 | $186.03 |
| 2026-10-15 | 60.74% | +3.43 | 0.840 | $200.50 |
| 2026-10-14 | 60.45% | +3.87 | 0.840 | $200.97 |
| 2026-10-13 | 57.93% | +2.21 | 0.859 | $208.67 |
| 2026-10-09 | 56.34% | +1.88 | 0.887 | $209.05 |
| 2026-10-08 | 57.08% | +2.03 | 0.881 | $198.78 |
| 2026-10-07 | 56.39% | +1.93 | 0.885 | $194.12 |
| 2026-10-06 | 54.84% | +2.26 | 0.913 | $192.07 |
| 2026-10-05 | 53.93% | +2.08 | 0.934 | $189.40 |
| 2026-10-02 | 46.91% | +2.07 | 1.090 | $188.75 |
| 2026-10-01 | 47.02% | +2.03 | 1.124 | $190.04 |
| 2026-09-30 | 44.78% | +1.91 | 1.186 | $187.05 |
| 2026-09-29 | 45.54% | +1.54 | 1.171 | $186.97 |
| 2026-09-28 | 46.79% | +1.56 | 1.161 | $187.48 |
| 2026-09-25 | 45.82% | +1.29 | 1.187 | $189.67 |
| 2026-09-24 | 47.46% | +0.37 | 1.167 | $192.59 |
| 2026-09-23 | 48.05% | +0.10 | 1.153 | $191.79 |
| 2026-09-22 | 46.22% | +1.32 | 1.177 | $184.99 |
| 2026-09-21 | 47.19% | +1.41 | 1.159 | $183.09 |
| 2026-09-18 | 46.59% | +1.87 | 1.180 | $177.64 |
| 2026-09-17 | 46.81% | +1.51 | 1.182 | $176.24 |
| 2026-09-16 | 48.88% | +2.06 | 1.152 | $174.34 |
| 2026-09-15 | 49.62% | +1.12 | 1.137 | $172.56 |
| 2026-09-14 | 48.22% | +1.55 | 1.159 | $173.31 |
| 2026-09-11 | 45.41% | +1.39 | 1.200 | $167.23 |
| 2026-09-10 | 47.54% | +1.36 | 1.173 | $165.86 |
| 2026-09-09 | 47.23% | +0.55 | 1.181 | $169.53 |
| 2026-09-08 | 47.82% | +0.80 | 1.170 | $170.30 |
| 2026-09-04 | 45.44% | +1.58 | 1.203 | $174.33 |
| 2026-09-03 | 47.24% | +1.96 | 1.176 | $182.53 |
| 2026-09-02 | 46.31% | +2.92 | 1.171 | $169.46 |
| 2026-09-01 | 45.50% | +2.81 | 1.187 | $179.92 |
| 2026-08-31 | 45.52% | +2.49 | 1.193 | $186.38 |
| 2026-08-28 | 44.40% | +1.65 | 1.228 | $186.29 |
| 2026-08-27 | 46.79% | +1.44 | 1.196 | $185.93 |
| 2026-08-26 | 47.46% | +1.66 | 1.173 | $177.50 |
| 2026-08-25 | 46.48% | +2.05 | 1.185 | $172.73 |
| 2025-10-22 | 69.93% | +3.28 | 0.842 | $175.49 |
| 2025-10-21 | 67.17% | +3.28 | 0.855 | $181.51 |
| 2025-10-20 | 68.98% | +4.15 | 0.846 | $181.59 |
| 2025-10-17 | 71.98% | +4.32 | 0.829 | $178.15 |
| 2025-10-16 | 74.22% | +4.43 | 0.821 | $178.12 |
| 2025-10-15 | 71.44% | +4.56 | 0.831 | $179.62 |
| 2025-10-14 | 70.95% | +3.51 | 0.833 | $179.74 |
| 2025-10-10 | 72.80% | +7.11 | 0.842 | $175.44 |
| 2025-10-09 | 66.58% | +1.91 | 0.879 | $185.47 |
| 2025-10-08 | 65.28% | +3.02 | 0.888 | $183.56 |
| 2025-10-07 | 66.08% | +3.06 | 0.891 | $182.17 |
| 2025-10-06 | 64.45% | +2.70 | 0.922 | $179.53 |
| 2025-10-03 | 58.44% | +4.71 | 1.027 | $173.07 |
| 2025-10-02 | 52.63% | +2.65 | 1.092 | $187.05 |
| 2025-10-01 | 50.21% | +2.91 | 1.152 | $184.95 |
| 2025-09-30 | 51.02% | +3.33 | 1.139 | $182.42 |
| 2025-09-29 | 49.87% | +2.95 | 1.160 | $178.86 |
| 2025-09-26 | 49.00% | +2.80 | 1.182 | $177.57 |
| 2025-09-25 | 52.41% | +3.15 | 1.131 | $179.12 |
| 2025-09-24 | 51.50% | +2.66 | 1.155 | $179.56 |
| 2025-09-23 | 52.91% | +0.89 | 1.126 | $182.55 |
| 2025-09-22 | 50.09% | +1.90 | 1.168 | $179.33 |
| 2025-09-19 | 49.49% | +1.41 | 1.175 | $182.39 |
| 2025-09-18 | 48.67% | +1.13 | 1.178 | $176.97 |
| 2025-09-17 | 49.07% | +2.05 | 1.159 | $168.33 |
| 2025-09-16 | 49.31% | +0.87 | 1.147 | $170.26 |
| 2025-09-15 | 49.68% | -0.18 | 1.138 | $171.21 |
| 2025-09-12 | 48.42% | -0.21 | 1.158 | $171.43 |
| 2025-09-11 | 47.03% | +1.52 | 1.176 | $164.36 |
| 2025-09-10 | 47.96% | +1.51 | 1.166 | $166.74 |
| 2025-09-09 | 48.14% | +2.52 | 1.169 | $162.36 |
| 2025-09-08 | 47.98% | +3.16 | 1.172 | $156.10 |
| 2025-09-05 | 48.65% | +3.59 | 1.167 | $153.11 |
| 2025-09-04 | 48.84% | +3.87 | 1.163 | $156.14 |
| 2025-09-03 | 49.85% | +5.65 | 1.152 | $154.90 |
| 2025-09-02 | 50.43% | +5.55 | 1.154 | $157.09 |
| 2025-08-29 | 48.12% | +4.27 | 1.192 | $156.71 |
| 2025-08-28 | 48.83% | +4.19 | 1.183 | $158.12 |
| 2025-08-27 | 52.27% | +6.77 | 1.134 | $156.72 |
| 2025-08-26 | 51.84% | +4.36 | 1.149 | $160.87 |
| 2025-08-25 | 52.07% | +5.84 | 1.132 | $157.17 |
| 2025-08-22 | 50.31% | +5.21 | 1.136 | $158.74 |
| 2025-08-21 | 53.15% | +7.62 | 1.095 | $156.18 |
| 2025-08-20 | 54.15% | +7.98 | 1.089 | $156.01 |
| 2025-08-19 | 54.30% | +6.62 | 1.089 | $157.75 |
| 2025-08-18 | 46.12% | +4.30 | 1.197 | $174.03 |
| 2025-08-15 | 45.60% | +3.50 | 1.193 | $177.17 |
| 2025-08-14 | 45.79% | +3.24 | 1.184 | $181.02 |
| 2025-08-13 | 45.91% | +3.53 | 1.183 | $184.37 |
| 2025-08-12 | 45.26% | +2.52 | 1.180 | $186.97 |
| 2025-08-11 | 45.28% | +4.35 | 1.192 | $182.68 |
| 2025-08-08 | 46.04% | +2.18 | 1.165 | $186.96 |
| 2025-08-07 | 47.54% | +3.27 | 1.143 | $182.20 |
| 2025-08-06 | 47.39% | +2.51 | 1.123 | $179.54 |
| 2025-08-05 | 49.29% | +3.99 | 1.075 | $173.27 |
| 2025-08-04 | 67.16% | +0.90 | 0.874 | $160.66 |
| 2025-08-01 | 68.49% | +4.80 | 0.872 | $154.27 |
| 2025-07-31 | 66.10% | +1.35 | 0.878 | $158.35 |
| 2025-07-30 | 64.22% | +1.94 | 0.880 | $158.61 |
| 2025-07-29 | 66.06% | +3.12 | 0.873 | $156.24 |
| 2025-07-28 | 64.75% | +2.51 | 0.888 | $157.88 |
| 2025-07-25 | 64.57% | +0.82 | 0.877 | $158.80 |
| 2025-07-24 | 63.49% | +0.87 | 0.883 | $154.86 |
| 2025-07-23 | 64.75% | +0.45 | 0.870 | $154.63 |
| 2025-07-22 | 65.54% | +1.17 | 0.863 | $149.07 |
| 2025-07-21 | 66.71% | +0.71 | 0.855 | $151.79 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 336 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 336 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
3d (2026-11-13) · 10d (2026-11-20) · 17d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 3d | 10d | 17d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 58.23% | 54.43% | 50.12% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 56.46% | 52.75% | 48.38% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 56.11% | 52.39% | 48.23% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 56.03% | 52.55% | 48.31% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 56.28% | 52.99% | 48.51% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 56.67% | 53.50% | 48.87% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 57.18% | 53.94% | 49.55% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 57.75% | 54.41% | 49.84% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 58.34% | 55.06% | 50.43% |
| ATM | 58.97% | 55.44% | 51.03% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 59.62% | 55.87% | 51.55% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 60.29% | 56.32% | 52.26% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 60.97% | 56.80% | 52.86% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 61.68% | 57.76% | 53.59% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 62.46% | 58.46% | 54.79% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 63.38% | 60.16% | 56.06% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 64.62% | 61.43% | 57.39% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 66.51% | 64.65% | 60.07% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 72.11% | 72.59% | 66.29% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 | $167.40 | 58.97% | 62.46% | 56.28% | +6.18 | +0.40 | 48 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 | $167.47 | 55.44% | 58.46% | 52.99% | +5.47 | +0.29 | 52 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 | $167.65 | 51.03% | 54.79% | 48.51% | +6.28 | +0.62 | 44 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 | $167.82 | 50.23% | 53.90% | 47.83% | +6.07 | +0.64 | 24 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 | $167.94 | 50.36% | 53.72% | 47.67% | +6.05 | +0.33 | 26 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 | $168.02 | 50.26% | 53.52% | 48.24% | +5.27 | +0.61 | 46 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 | $167.84 | 49.42% | 52.90% | 47.75% | +5.16 | +0.91 | 25 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 | $168.59 | 49.69% | 52.76% | 47.63% | +5.14 | +0.51 | 41 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 | $169.44 | 54.51% | 57.36% | 52.39% | +4.98 | +0.37 | 38 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 | $169.92 | 53.68% | 56.55% | 51.70% | +4.85 | +0.44 | 42 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 | $170.20 | 53.28% | 55.74% | 50.98% | +4.76 | +0.08 | 44 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 | $171.36 | 54.50% | 57.66% | 52.82% | +4.84 | +0.74 | 45 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 | $171.85 | 54.28% | 57.06% | 52.46% | +4.60 | +0.47 | 60 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 | $173.49 | 54.43% | 57.15% | 53.09% | +4.06 | +0.68 | 55 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
14 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 3 天 | $167.40 | 58.97% | $167.64 | 48 |
| 2026-11-20 | 10 天 | $167.47 | 55.44% | $168.18 | 52 |
| 2026-11-27 | 17 天 | $167.65 | 51.03% | $168.67 | 44 |
| 2026-12-04 | 24 天 | $167.82 | 50.23% | $169.22 | 24 |
| 2026-12-11 | 31 天 | $167.94 | 50.36% | $169.76 | 26 |
| 2026-12-18 | 38 天 | $168.02 | 50.26% | $170.24 | 46 |
| 2026-12-24 | 44 天 | $167.84 | 49.42% | $170.33 | 25 |
| 2027-01-15 | 66 天 | $168.59 | 49.69% | $172.39 | 41 |
| 2027-02-19 | 101 天 | $169.44 | 54.51% | $176.55 | 38 |
| 2027-03-19 | 129 天 | $169.92 | 53.68% | $178.80 | 42 |
| 2027-04-16 | 157 天 | $170.20 | 53.28% | $180.92 | 44 |
| 2027-05-21 | 192 天 | $171.36 | 54.50% | $185.28 | 45 |
| 2027-06-17 | 219 天 | $171.85 | 54.28% | $187.73 | 60 |
| 2027-09-17 | 311 天 | $173.49 | 54.43% | $196.84 | 55 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 50.35%
- 60 天
- 49.63%
- 90 天
- 53.44%
- 180 天
- 54.14%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 336 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 5 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 5 次中 2 次
- 40% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 16.5%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 94.4%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | 收盘后 | 15.7% | -1.6% | 0.11× |
| 2026-08-03 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-04 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-02 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-03 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-04 | 收盘后 | 15.0% | +7.5% | 0.50× |
| 2025-05-05 | 收盘后 | 18.0% | +39.6% | 2.20× |
| 2025-02-03 | 收盘后 | 17.3% | +106.3% | 6.13× |
| 2024-11-04 | 收盘后 | 16.7% | +317.1% | 18.99× |
| 2024-08-05 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-06 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-05 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-02 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。