股票 · 期权分析
RIVN 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月12日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $12.80
- 30D ATM IV
- 60.73%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 39
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- -2.55
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.997
▼ -0.02 pts 较前一交易日
概览
RIVN 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 60.7%,相当于未来一个月约 ±17.4% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 39% 的读数。
它的 25-delta call 比 put 的隐含波动率高 2.55 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-28(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 6 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±13.5% 的波动,RIVN 实际平均波动 27.2%,6 次中有 2 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 60.73%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- -2.55
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +1.03
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.997
对应 30 天内约 ±17.4% 的波动，平常一天约 ±3.8%。
高于过去一年中 39% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，call 比 put的隐含波动率高 2.55 个点。
高于过去一年中 32% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 1.03 个点。
90 天与 30 天期权的隐含波动率大致相同。
高于过去一年中 43% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 39%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 33%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 29%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 26%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $12.80
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $12.91
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 58.08%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 60.53%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 61.84%
- 使用的到期日数
- 11
- 总未平仓量
- 1,321,999
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.66
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 337 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | 60.73% | -2.55 | 0.997 | $12.80 |
| 2026-11-10 | 60.76% | +0.55 | 0.983 | $13.70 |
| 2026-11-09 | 58.71% | +1.69 | 1.011 | $14.01 |
| 2026-11-06 | 57.90% | +3.74 | 1.056 | $13.61 |
| 2026-11-05 | 62.11% | +3.24 | 1.007 | $13.29 |
| 2026-11-04 | 56.53% | -1.66 | 1.057 | $14.06 |
| 2026-11-03 | 60.32% | +0.73 | 1.015 | $13.29 |
| 2026-11-02 | 61.90% | -4.50 | 0.998 | $13.19 |
| 2026-10-30 | 61.27% | -3.99 | 0.980 | $12.16 |
| 2026-10-29 | 72.88% | -5.64 | 0.922 | $11.45 |
| 2026-10-28 | 73.92% | -6.11 | 0.907 | $11.67 |
| 2026-10-27 | 77.08% | -5.39 | 0.879 | $11.82 |
| 2026-10-26 | 70.14% | -0.61 | 0.922 | $11.43 |
| 2026-10-23 | 68.35% | -3.84 | 0.906 | $11.83 |
| 2026-10-22 | 69.32% | -4.88 | 0.885 | $12.06 |
| 2026-10-21 | 65.08% | -4.18 | 0.927 | $12.46 |
| 2026-10-20 | 67.08% | -3.78 | 0.898 | $12.43 |
| 2026-10-19 | 68.38% | -4.81 | 0.875 | $12.34 |
| 2026-10-16 | 69.75% | -5.25 | 0.861 | $12.42 |
| 2026-10-15 | 67.24% | -0.92 | 0.877 | $13.02 |
| 2026-10-14 | 67.02% | -3.60 | 0.880 | $12.95 |
| 2026-10-13 | 65.69% | -6.49 | 0.884 | $13.37 |
| 2026-10-09 | 63.94% | -2.88 | 0.905 | $13.96 |
| 2026-10-08 | 65.82% | -4.41 | 0.886 | $14.33 |
| 2026-10-07 | 65.60% | -5.39 | 0.895 | $14.34 |
| 2026-10-06 | 66.44% | -6.18 | 0.891 | $14.51 |
| 2026-10-05 | 65.84% | -4.65 | 0.899 | $14.60 |
| 2026-10-02 | 68.05% | -5.42 | 0.912 | $14.30 |
| 2026-10-01 | 65.80% | -3.10 | 0.934 | $14.76 |
| 2026-09-30 | 63.35% | -3.76 | 0.973 | $14.94 |
| 2026-09-29 | 62.28% | -5.56 | 0.982 | $14.97 |
| 2026-09-28 | 57.87% | -3.22 | 1.041 | $14.79 |
| 2026-09-25 | 54.76% | -5.42 | 1.093 | $15.47 |
| 2026-09-24 | 54.70% | -5.42 | 1.121 | $15.29 |
| 2026-09-23 | 51.56% | -5.24 | 1.152 | $15.02 |
| 2026-09-22 | 52.87% | -6.90 | 1.138 | $15.14 |
| 2026-09-21 | 55.02% | -4.19 | 1.097 | $15.36 |
| 2026-09-18 | 54.50% | -5.56 | 1.102 | $14.99 |
| 2026-09-17 | 56.98% | -4.37 | 1.090 | $15.40 |
| 2026-09-16 | 55.85% | -6.94 | 1.091 | $15.23 |
| 2026-09-15 | 56.70% | -4.98 | 1.083 | $15.54 |
| 2026-09-14 | 57.53% | -4.38 | 1.066 | $15.86 |
| 2026-09-11 | 55.89% | -3.96 | 1.116 | $16.03 |
| 2026-09-10 | 56.28% | -0.22 | 1.111 | $16.05 |
| 2026-09-09 | 59.02% | -7.52 | 1.082 | $16.01 |
| 2026-09-08 | 58.44% | -5.03 | 1.087 | $16.17 |
| 2026-09-04 | 50.52% | -3.45 | 1.172 | $15.74 |
| 2026-09-03 | 49.91% | -4.87 | 1.224 | $15.91 |
| 2026-09-02 | 51.34% | -6.72 | 1.141 | $15.61 |
| 2026-09-01 | 53.13% | -3.10 | 1.167 | $15.54 |
| 2026-08-31 | 53.38% | -5.08 | 1.119 | $16.06 |
| 2026-08-28 | 53.10% | -4.37 | 1.115 | $16.07 |
| 2026-08-27 | 53.18% | -1.99 | 1.152 | $16.80 |
| 2026-08-26 | 55.46% | -4.53 | 1.116 | $16.33 |
| 2026-08-25 | 61.12% | -10.22 | 1.002 | $16.74 |
| 2025-10-22 | 75.86% | -4.66 | 0.852 | $12.92 |
| 2025-10-21 | 71.35% | -1.43 | 0.875 | $13.20 |
| 2025-10-20 | 70.79% | -3.21 | 0.914 | $13.08 |
| 2025-10-17 | 74.56% | -5.72 | 0.862 | $13.03 |
| 2025-10-16 | 78.32% | -5.17 | 0.843 | $12.91 |
| 2025-10-15 | 72.53% | +0.92 | 0.883 | $13.41 |
| 2025-10-14 | 72.56% | -2.55 | 0.896 | $13.12 |
| 2025-10-10 | 76.06% | -2.82 | 0.864 | $12.80 |
| 2025-10-09 | 76.54% | -3.56 | 0.849 | $13.09 |
| 2025-10-08 | 75.43% | -4.80 | 0.873 | $13.13 |
| 2025-10-07 | 75.60% | -5.16 | 0.870 | $13.26 |
| 2025-10-06 | 73.11% | -4.34 | 0.908 | $13.50 |
| 2025-10-03 | 64.98% | -3.18 | 1.025 | $13.65 |
| 2025-10-02 | 64.95% | -3.95 | 1.046 | $13.53 |
| 2025-10-01 | 63.58% | -2.96 | 1.051 | $14.61 |
| 2025-09-30 | 60.50% | -2.28 | 1.103 | $14.68 |
| 2025-09-29 | 62.87% | -4.34 | 1.063 | $15.25 |
| 2025-09-26 | 61.42% | -3.48 | 1.074 | $15.59 |
| 2025-09-25 | 65.37% | -3.47 | 1.026 | $15.74 |
| 2025-09-24 | 64.40% | -5.93 | 1.018 | $15.79 |
| 2025-09-23 | 65.30% | -4.57 | 0.992 | $15.53 |
| 2025-09-22 | 66.40% | -4.72 | 0.982 | $15.24 |
| 2025-09-19 | 63.60% | -3.53 | 1.005 | $14.38 |
| 2025-09-18 | 64.51% | -4.86 | 0.997 | $14.68 |
| 2025-09-17 | 60.98% | -4.05 | 1.023 | $14.11 |
| 2025-09-16 | 62.75% | -2.10 | 1.007 | $14.32 |
| 2025-09-15 | 61.68% | -2.48 | 1.012 | $13.60 |
| 2025-09-12 | 60.10% | -0.83 | 1.032 | $13.46 |
| 2025-09-11 | 59.15% | -1.55 | 1.032 | $13.97 |
| 2025-09-10 | 58.46% | -1.26 | 1.032 | $13.91 |
| 2025-09-09 | 58.90% | -1.48 | 1.018 | $13.94 |
| 2025-09-08 | 58.82% | -1.45 | 1.028 | $13.99 |
| 2025-09-05 | 57.11% | -1.41 | 1.045 | $14.21 |
| 2025-09-04 | 56.84% | -1.84 | 1.047 | $13.70 |
| 2025-09-03 | 55.95% | -2.25 | 1.047 | $14.44 |
| 2025-09-02 | 54.05% | -0.88 | 1.054 | $13.87 |
| 2025-08-29 | 49.53% | -0.63 | 1.132 | $13.57 |
| 2025-08-28 | 50.78% | -0.98 | 1.120 | $13.64 |
| 2025-08-27 | 50.22% | +0.11 | 1.141 | $13.22 |
| 2025-08-26 | 51.25% | -0.59 | 1.115 | $13.21 |
| 2025-08-25 | 49.32% | +0.80 | 1.143 | $13.11 |
| 2025-08-22 | 47.45% | +0.58 | 1.148 | $13.09 |
| 2025-08-21 | 49.50% | +0.50 | 1.132 | $12.12 |
| 2025-08-20 | 48.45% | +0.41 | 1.150 | $12.07 |
| 2025-08-19 | 48.44% | -1.31 | 1.148 | $12.25 |
| 2025-08-18 | 48.45% | -0.05 | 1.141 | $12.41 |
| 2025-08-15 | 47.51% | -0.17 | 1.157 | $12.24 |
| 2025-08-14 | 47.38% | -0.11 | 1.154 | $12.06 |
| 2025-08-13 | 47.41% | -0.64 | 1.135 | $12.28 |
| 2025-08-12 | 47.21% | +0.40 | 1.148 | $11.97 |
| 2025-08-11 | 48.80% | -0.51 | 1.121 | $11.93 |
| 2025-08-08 | 47.78% | -0.67 | 1.131 | $11.79 |
| 2025-08-07 | 48.93% | +0.53 | 1.117 | $12.07 |
| 2025-08-06 | 50.68% | -1.06 | 1.083 | $11.64 |
| 2025-08-05 | 66.78% | +0.09 | 0.920 | $12.15 |
| 2025-08-04 | 62.61% | -2.04 | 0.942 | $12.41 |
| 2025-08-01 | 62.98% | -2.20 | 0.934 | $12.38 |
| 2025-07-31 | 61.54% | -1.86 | 0.936 | $12.87 |
| 2025-07-30 | 64.83% | -1.87 | 0.893 | $13.03 |
| 2025-07-29 | 63.58% | +0.79 | 0.917 | $13.06 |
| 2025-07-28 | 65.09% | -1.98 | 0.891 | $13.78 |
| 2025-07-25 | 66.44% | -1.56 | 0.869 | $14.01 |
| 2025-07-24 | 67.92% | -0.02 | 0.861 | $13.82 |
| 2025-07-23 | 69.30% | -1.72 | 0.861 | $14.02 |
| 2025-07-22 | 66.31% | -2.01 | 0.877 | $14.12 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 337 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 337 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
8d (2026-11-20) · 15d (2026-11-27) · 22d (2026-12-04)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 8d | 15d | 22d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 79.43% | 70.08% | 69.55% |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 65.64% | 61.97% | 62.05% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 59.94% | 58.57% | 60.16% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 58.22% | 57.30% | 59.23% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 57.62% | 56.09% | 58.28% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 57.40% | 55.24% | 57.30% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 57.44% | 54.65% | 56.17% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 57.55% | 54.29% | 55.65% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 57.63% | 54.02% | 55.96% |
| ATM | 57.64% | 53.94% | 56.27% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 57.58% | 54.24% | 56.03% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 57.50% | 54.70% | 55.63% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 57.46% | 54.87% | 55.82% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 57.66% | 54.90% | 56.64% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 58.19% | 54.93% | 57.24% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 58.60% | 55.27% | 57.74% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 58.43% | 56.32% | 58.50% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 58.01% | 58.28% | 60.39% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 58.47% | 59.35% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 8 | $12.88 | 57.64% | 58.19% | 57.62% | +0.56 | +0.27 | 13 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 | $12.90 | 53.94% | 54.93% | 56.09% | -1.16 | +1.57 | 15 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 | $12.89 | 56.27% | 57.24% | 58.28% | -1.04 | +1.49 | 17 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 | $12.91 | 61.02% | 60.60% | 63.35% | -2.74 | +0.96 | 17 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 | $12.93 | 59.34% | 59.94% | 61.56% | -1.62 | +1.41 | 15 |
| 2026-12-24 | 42 | $12.95 | 58.78% | 60.99% | 60.69% | +0.29 | +2.05 | 15 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 | $12.98 | 57.97% | 59.23% | 58.62% | +0.61 | +0.95 | 20 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 | $13.05 | 62.31% | 63.49% | 63.03% | +0.46 | +0.96 | 21 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 | $13.25 | 61.65% | 64.80% | 64.37% | +0.44 | +2.94 | 19 |
| 2027-09-17 | 309 | $13.41 | 65.25% | 65.94% | 65.52% | +0.41 | +0.48 | 11 |
| 2027-12-17 | 400 | $13.60 | 64.41% | 66.70% | 64.49% | +2.21 | +1.19 | 15 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
11 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 8 天 | $12.88 | 57.64% | $12.93 | 13 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 天 | $12.90 | 53.94% | $12.98 | 15 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 天 | $12.89 | 56.27% | $13.02 | 17 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 天 | $12.91 | 61.02% | $13.10 | 17 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 天 | $12.93 | 59.34% | $13.16 | 15 |
| 2026-12-24 | 42 天 | $12.95 | 58.78% | $13.21 | 15 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 天 | $12.98 | 57.97% | $13.37 | 20 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 天 | $13.05 | 62.31% | $13.96 | 21 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 天 | $13.25 | 61.65% | $14.83 | 19 |
| 2027-09-17 | 309 天 | $13.41 | 65.25% | $16.05 | 11 |
| 2027-12-17 | 400 天 | $13.60 | 64.41% | $17.08 | 15 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 60.73%
- 60 天
- 58.08%
- 90 天
- 60.53%
- 180 天
- 61.84%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 337 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 6 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 6 次中 2 次
- 33% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 13.5%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 27.2%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-03 | 未说明时间 | 7.5% | +5.8% | 0.77× |
| 2026-10-29 | 收盘后 | 12.3% | +6.2% | 0.51× |
| 2026-07-30 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-07-06 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-30 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-12 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-04 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-05 | 收盘后 | 13.4% | +37.8% | 2.82× |
| 2025-05-06 | 收盘后 | 13.4% | +24.0% | 1.80× |
| 2025-02-20 | 收盘后 | 17.3% | +23.0% | 1.33× |
| 2024-11-07 | 收盘后 | 17.3% | +66.6% | 3.85× |
| 2024-08-06 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-07 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-21 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-07 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-04 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。