股票 · 期权分析
STX 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月12日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $545.14
- 30D ATM IV
- 77.10%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 97
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +2.05
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.932
▼ -2.55 pts 较前一交易日
概览
STX 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 77.1%,相当于未来一个月约 ±22.1% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 251 个交易日中 97% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 2.05 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
期限结构倒挂:90 天波动率比 30 天低 7%。当市场把某个有确定日期的事件计入较近的到期日时,就会出现这种情况。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-26(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 6 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±8.3% 的波动,STX 实际平均波动 542.9%,6 次中有 1 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 77.10%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +2.05
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.34
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.932
对应 30 天内约 ±22.1% 的波动，平常一天约 ±4.9%。
高于过去一年中 97% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 2.05 个点。
高于过去一年中 43% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.34 个点。
90 天的隐含波动率比 30 天低 7%。
高于过去一年中 37% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 251 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 97%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 81%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 98%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 81%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $545.14
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $544.88
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 73.32%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 71.83%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 71.34%
- 使用的到期日数
- 12
- 总未平仓量
- 190,842
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 1.36
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 335 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | 77.10% | +2.05 | 0.932 | $545.14 |
| 2026-11-10 | 79.65% | +7.90 | 0.961 | $501.62 |
| 2026-11-09 | 82.69% | +7.85 | 0.898 | $506.14 |
| 2026-11-06 | 88.81% | +13.69 | 0.889 | $460.99 |
| 2026-11-05 | 88.08% | +14.61 | 0.880 | $466.53 |
| 2026-11-04 | 73.63% | +5.75 | 0.951 | $557.06 |
| 2026-11-03 | 75.65% | +4.61 | 0.901 | $606.38 |
| 2026-11-02 | 76.11% | +6.84 | 0.921 | $593.76 |
| 2026-10-30 | 72.26% | +6.73 | 0.933 | $644.58 |
| 2026-10-29 | 66.82% | +0.32 | 0.944 | $700.47 |
| 2026-10-28 | 62.16% | +2.29 | 1.011 | $697.97 |
| 2026-10-27 | 68.41% | +2.26 | 0.943 | $667.85 |
| 2026-10-26 | 70.39% | +2.36 | 0.918 | $644.21 |
| 2026-10-23 | 70.38% | +0.88 | 0.914 | $630.49 |
| 2026-10-22 | 75.80% | +0.16 | 0.861 | $642.14 |
| 2026-10-21 | 69.24% | +0.72 | 0.905 | $696.89 |
| 2026-10-20 | 69.64% | -0.15 | 0.903 | $675.13 |
| 2026-10-19 | 70.58% | -0.45 | 0.872 | $660.81 |
| 2026-10-16 | 70.95% | +5.81 | 0.916 | $639.01 |
| 2026-10-15 | 68.52% | +1.05 | 0.899 | $690.81 |
| 2026-10-14 | 71.60% | -3.53 | 0.862 | $713.54 |
| 2026-10-13 | 68.35% | -1.35 | 0.875 | $747.20 |
| 2026-10-09 | 64.32% | +0.66 | 0.915 | $783.00 |
| 2026-10-08 | 67.17% | -3.49 | 0.898 | $774.83 |
| 2026-10-07 | 67.37% | -1.61 | 0.916 | $807.57 |
| 2026-10-06 | 68.74% | -3.72 | 0.909 | $805.63 |
| 2026-10-05 | 68.47% | -2.84 | 0.928 | $887.09 |
| 2026-10-02 | 69.40% | -2.36 | 0.961 | $848.99 |
| 2026-10-01 | 70.31% | -1.79 | 0.958 | $945.57 |
| 2026-09-30 | 77.42% | -0.34 | 0.894 | $922.34 |
| 2026-09-29 | 73.69% | -2.92 | 0.933 | $913.45 |
| 2026-09-28 | 73.41% | +0.67 | 0.950 | $921.51 |
| 2026-09-25 | 67.59% | -2.12 | 1.035 | $916.83 |
| 2026-09-24 | 68.30% | -2.88 | 1.031 | $905.92 |
| 2026-09-23 | 70.71% | -1.65 | 1.009 | $923.86 |
| 2026-09-22 | 71.31% | -1.77 | 1.016 | $919.84 |
| 2026-09-21 | 66.86% | +0.66 | 1.042 | $877.33 |
| 2026-09-18 | 65.20% | +1.20 | 1.048 | $858.79 |
| 2026-09-17 | 64.61% | +0.36 | 1.082 | $803.13 |
| 2026-09-16 | 65.20% | +0.38 | 1.094 | $783.18 |
| 2026-09-15 | 66.30% | -0.28 | 1.074 | $771.81 |
| 2026-09-14 | 64.89% | -0.27 | 1.116 | $805.55 |
| 2026-09-11 | 65.12% | -1.38 | 1.107 | $830.17 |
| 2026-09-10 | 67.08% | -1.64 | 1.090 | $862.33 |
| 2026-09-09 | 70.74% | -4.08 | 1.063 | $885.92 |
| 2026-09-08 | 76.82% | -5.14 | 1.006 | $904.38 |
| 2026-09-04 | 67.65% | -2.44 | 1.074 | $849.28 |
| 2026-09-03 | 67.33% | -1.55 | 1.057 | $798.61 |
| 2026-09-02 | 64.20% | +0.55 | 1.106 | $808.54 |
| 2026-09-01 | 65.84% | +0.02 | 1.084 | $816.64 |
| 2026-08-31 | 65.05% | -0.02 | 1.105 | $828.38 |
| 2026-08-28 | 64.95% | -3.04 | 1.108 | $829.76 |
| 2026-08-27 | 68.52% | -0.98 | 1.070 | $847.20 |
| 2026-08-26 | 67.11% | -0.23 | 1.109 | $846.37 |
| 2025-10-22 | 66.76% | +0.16 | 0.808 | $215.05 |
| 2025-10-21 | 68.12% | +2.07 | 0.825 | $214.57 |
| 2025-10-20 | 66.71% | +4.96 | 0.820 | $214.40 |
| 2025-10-17 | 64.27% | +5.15 | 0.844 | $225.40 |
| 2025-10-16 | 67.58% | +3.66 | 0.820 | $226.03 |
| 2025-10-15 | 62.59% | +0.56 | 0.842 | $219.38 |
| 2025-10-14 | 64.10% | +2.47 | 0.831 | $211.63 |
| 2025-10-10 | 66.95% | +1.03 | 0.805 | $214.38 |
| 2025-10-09 | 60.39% | +1.29 | 0.875 | $221.70 |
| 2025-10-08 | 63.37% | +1.74 | 0.852 | $224.35 |
| 2025-10-07 | 61.77% | +0.87 | 0.887 | $225.01 |
| 2025-10-06 | 62.82% | -0.37 | 0.872 | $242.83 |
| 2025-10-03 | 61.68% | -0.01 | 0.886 | $252.79 |
| 2025-10-02 | 62.96% | -2.01 | 0.872 | $254.74 |
| 2025-10-01 | 64.13% | -4.57 | 0.870 | $256.84 |
| 2025-09-30 | 55.59% | +0.04 | 0.937 | $236.06 |
| 2025-09-29 | 54.30% | -0.11 | 0.938 | $229.14 |
| 2025-09-26 | 48.95% | +1.93 | 0.999 | $217.51 |
| 2025-09-25 | 48.77% | +2.57 | 1.011 | $219.85 |
| 2025-09-24 | 49.48% | -0.55 | 1.026 | $223.70 |
| 2025-09-23 | 50.41% | -0.65 | 1.012 | $228.13 |
| 2025-09-22 | 48.93% | -0.63 | 1.029 | $229.33 |
| 2025-09-19 | 44.61% | +0.68 | 1.062 | $221.23 |
| 2025-09-18 | 43.66% | +0.73 | 1.073 | $216.64 |
| 2025-09-17 | 43.33% | +0.73 | 1.077 | $213.36 |
| 2025-09-16 | 44.71% | +0.45 | 1.055 | $211.13 |
| 2025-09-15 | 46.67% | -1.37 | 1.012 | $211.12 |
| 2025-09-12 | 40.30% | +1.43 | 1.093 | $195.99 |
| 2025-09-11 | 40.74% | +1.46 | 1.084 | $196.81 |
| 2025-09-10 | 39.25% | +2.72 | 1.103 | $193.04 |
| 2025-09-09 | 39.13% | +3.03 | 1.120 | $191.59 |
| 2025-09-08 | 38.88% | +2.36 | 1.098 | $189.24 |
| 2025-09-05 | 38.55% | +2.64 | 1.114 | $188.16 |
| 2025-09-04 | 38.47% | +1.05 | 1.099 | $183.98 |
| 2025-09-03 | 40.72% | +2.97 | 1.051 | $176.32 |
| 2025-09-02 | 38.62% | +5.05 | 1.112 | $170.50 |
| 2025-08-29 | 37.25% | +2.26 | 1.130 | $167.40 |
| 2025-08-28 | 36.37% | +1.50 | 1.136 | $172.38 |
| 2025-08-27 | 35.76% | +2.53 | 1.165 | $167.24 |
| 2025-08-26 | 37.35% | +2.41 | 1.113 | $165.24 |
| 2025-08-25 | 37.93% | +1.49 | 1.099 | $164.00 |
| 2025-08-22 | 36.09% | +1.94 | 1.122 | $159.21 |
| 2025-08-21 | 38.39% | +2.34 | 1.047 | $154.60 |
| 2025-08-20 | 36.96% | +2.32 | 1.099 | $158.40 |
| 2025-08-19 | 36.34% | +2.23 | 1.103 | $157.93 |
| 2025-08-18 | 35.50% | +1.44 | 1.120 | $158.70 |
| 2025-08-15 | 35.01% | +1.79 | 1.121 | $154.43 |
| 2025-08-14 | 35.71% | +1.28 | 1.102 | $155.73 |
| 2025-08-13 | 34.64% | +1.87 | 1.114 | $156.92 |
| 2025-08-12 | 33.73% | +1.58 | 1.130 | $155.59 |
| 2025-08-11 | 35.22% | +1.88 | 1.095 | $151.69 |
| 2025-08-08 | 35.44% | +3.86 | 1.095 | $150.45 |
| 2025-08-07 | 35.10% | +2.39 | 1.090 | $148.10 |
| 2025-08-06 | 35.29% | +2.43 | 1.072 | $147.27 |
| 2025-08-05 | 37.77% | +5.17 | 1.005 | $151.74 |
| 2025-08-04 | 34.24% | +3.60 | 1.100 | $154.81 |
| 2025-08-01 | 36.99% | +2.71 | 1.028 | $154.81 |
| 2025-07-31 | 36.01% | +3.12 | 1.024 | $157.01 |
| 2025-07-30 | 33.34% | +1.81 | 1.053 | $147.42 |
| 2025-07-29 | 45.57% | +2.04 | 0.868 | $152.68 |
| 2025-07-28 | 41.69% | +4.15 | 0.937 | $150.46 |
| 2025-07-25 | 43.12% | +1.20 | 0.892 | $150.89 |
| 2025-07-24 | 43.48% | +1.42 | 0.889 | $152.73 |
| 2025-07-23 | 44.43% | +3.11 | 0.880 | $152.76 |
| 2025-07-22 | 44.05% | +2.49 | 0.881 | $146.59 |
| 2025-07-21 | 43.80% | +2.37 | 0.891 | $149.63 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 335 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 335 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
1d (2026-11-13) · 8d (2026-11-20) · 15d (2026-11-27)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 1d | 8d | 15d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 98.89% | — | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 95.48% | 82.50% | 73.17% |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 94.53% | 82.64% | 73.24% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 93.95% | 82.80% | 73.40% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 93.43% | 83.48% | 74.12% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 92.45% | 83.64% | 75.02% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 92.72% | 84.24% | 76.55% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 93.71% | 84.12% | 76.78% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 93.91% | 84.53% | 76.62% |
| ATM | 94.23% | 85.17% | 76.66% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 92.08% | 84.83% | 78.47% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 92.89% | 84.96% | 78.98% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 92.78% | 85.76% | 78.53% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 93.01% | 86.25% | 76.47% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 94.47% | 86.93% | 77.14% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 97.05% | 87.77% | 77.29% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 98.90% | 88.46% | 79.84% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 102.58% | 90.52% | 80.19% |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 1 | $545.00 | 94.23% | 94.47% | 93.43% | +1.04 | -0.28 | 40 |
| 2026-11-20 | 8 | $545.35 | 85.17% | 86.93% | 83.48% | +3.46 | +0.04 | 66 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 | $544.20 | 76.66% | 77.14% | 74.12% | +3.02 | -1.03 | 57 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 | $545.05 | 76.85% | 77.78% | 74.41% | +3.37 | -0.75 | 61 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 | $544.80 | 77.18% | 78.48% | 76.94% | +1.54 | +0.53 | 54 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 | $545.33 | 76.74% | 78.39% | 73.82% | +4.57 | -0.63 | 46 |
| 2026-12-24 | 42 | $545.35 | 77.16% | 77.88% | 73.24% | +4.65 | -1.60 | 52 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 | $547.78 | 72.74% | 75.73% | 70.23% | +5.50 | +0.24 | 56 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 | $553.45 | 71.17% | 75.76% | 71.05% | +4.71 | +2.23 | 84 |
| 2027-04-16 | 155 | $554.02 | 71.29% | 75.01% | 70.25% | +4.76 | +1.34 | 74 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 | $557.79 | 71.40% | 74.05% | 69.93% | +4.12 | +0.59 | 139 |
| 2027-09-17 | 309 | $562.55 | 71.26% | 73.15% | 70.08% | +3.07 | +0.35 | 100 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
12 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-13 | 1 天 | $545.00 | 94.23% | $545.66 | 40 |
| 2026-11-20 | 8 天 | $545.35 | 85.17% | $549.70 | 66 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 天 | $544.20 | 76.66% | $550.81 | 57 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 天 | $545.05 | 76.85% | $554.84 | 61 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 天 | $544.80 | 77.18% | $557.84 | 54 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 天 | $545.33 | 76.74% | $561.40 | 46 |
| 2026-12-24 | 42 天 | $545.35 | 77.16% | $564.36 | 52 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 天 | $547.78 | 72.74% | $573.80 | 56 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 天 | $553.45 | 71.17% | $604.44 | 84 |
| 2027-04-16 | 155 天 | $554.02 | 71.29% | $617.15 | 74 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 天 | $557.79 | 71.40% | $649.06 | 139 |
| 2027-09-17 | 309 天 | $562.55 | 71.26% | $697.43 | 100 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 77.10%
- 60 天
- 73.32%
- 90 天
- 71.83%
- 180 天
- 71.34%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 335 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 6 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 6 次中 1 次
- 17% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 8.3%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 542.9%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-27 | 收盘后 | 10.5% | +4.5% | 0.43× |
| 2026-07-28 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-28 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-27 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-28 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-07-30 | 收盘后 | 3.0% | +474.1% | 160.23× |
| 2025-07-29 | 收盘后 | 9.3% | +454.3% | 48.95× |
| 2025-04-29 | 收盘后 | 9.1% | +937.2% | 102.89× |
| 2025-01-21 | 收盘后 | 8.9% | +735.9% | 82.83× |
| 2024-10-22 | 收盘后 | 8.8% | +651.4% | 73.84× |
| 2024-07-23 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-23 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-24 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-26 | 开盘前 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。