股票 · 期权分析
TTD 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月12日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $15.47
- 30D ATM IV
- 56.19%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 49
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +2.51
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 1.006
▼ -5.79 pts 较前一交易日
概览
TTD 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 56.2%,相当于未来一个月约 ±16.1% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 252 个交易日中 49% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 2.51 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
它的下一次财报在 2027-02-08(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 6 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±15.1% 的波动,TTD 实际平均波动 57.9%,6 次中有 2 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 56.19%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +2.51
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.23
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 1.006
对应 30 天内约 ±16.1% 的波动，平常一天约 ±3.5%。
高于过去一年中 49% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 2.51 个点。
高于过去一年中 68% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.23 个点。
90 天与 30 天期权的隐含波动率大致相同。
高于过去一年中 41% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 252 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 49%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 32%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 60%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 38%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $15.47
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $15.75
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 52.15%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 56.53%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 61.14%
- 使用的到期日数
- 10
- 总未平仓量
- 444,145
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.47
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 335 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | 56.19% | +2.51 | 1.006 | $15.47 |
| 2026-11-10 | 61.97% | +3.16 | 0.970 | $15.42 |
| 2026-11-09 | 94.12% | +0.02 | 0.743 | $14.93 |
| 2026-11-06 | 81.98% | +7.16 | 0.837 | $12.93 |
| 2026-11-05 | 83.51% | +0.86 | 0.826 | $12.81 |
| 2026-11-04 | 81.10% | -1.07 | 0.862 | $13.23 |
| 2026-11-03 | 84.85% | +3.61 | 0.819 | $12.86 |
| 2026-11-02 | 84.94% | +1.60 | 0.864 | $12.55 |
| 2026-10-30 | 82.45% | +3.18 | 0.870 | $12.29 |
| 2026-10-29 | 82.02% | -0.77 | 0.816 | $13.06 |
| 2026-10-28 | 82.18% | -4.07 | — | $12.76 |
| 2026-10-27 | 84.53% | +1.01 | 0.801 | $12.70 |
| 2026-10-26 | 86.99% | -2.81 | 0.827 | $12.77 |
| 2026-10-23 | 82.81% | -1.47 | 0.824 | $13.00 |
| 2026-10-22 | 82.73% | +5.75 | 0.831 | $13.16 |
| 2026-10-21 | 82.20% | -0.16 | 0.826 | $12.59 |
| 2026-10-20 | 83.66% | +0.19 | 0.862 | $12.65 |
| 2026-10-19 | 83.79% | -0.44 | 0.872 | $12.26 |
| 2026-10-16 | 86.03% | -1.17 | 0.827 | $12.23 |
| 2026-10-15 | 89.44% | -2.19 | 0.748 | $13.13 |
| 2026-10-14 | 86.77% | -0.18 | 0.769 | $12.18 |
| 2026-10-13 | 81.07% | -0.55 | 0.875 | $12.17 |
| 2026-10-09 | 69.61% | -2.03 | 1.026 | $12.08 |
| 2026-10-08 | 66.75% | +0.10 | 1.061 | $12.34 |
| 2026-10-07 | 67.88% | -2.23 | — | $12.09 |
| 2026-10-06 | 67.21% | -3.06 | — | $11.92 |
| 2026-10-05 | 64.33% | +0.61 | 1.151 | $11.98 |
| 2026-10-02 | 56.08% | +1.61 | — | $11.95 |
| 2026-10-01 | 54.46% | -0.39 | 1.208 | $12.10 |
| 2026-09-30 | 57.24% | +0.36 | 1.194 | $12.17 |
| 2026-09-29 | 57.36% | -0.79 | 1.195 | $12.05 |
| 2026-09-28 | 56.06% | -0.43 | 1.221 | $12.34 |
| 2026-09-25 | 53.75% | -0.27 | 1.293 | $12.60 |
| 2026-09-24 | 54.02% | -2.18 | 1.291 | $12.63 |
| 2026-09-23 | 54.26% | -2.46 | 1.220 | $12.68 |
| 2026-09-22 | 54.08% | -3.26 | 1.261 | $13.18 |
| 2026-09-21 | 54.20% | -1.23 | 1.263 | $13.88 |
| 2026-09-18 | 54.73% | -2.25 | 1.164 | $13.92 |
| 2026-09-17 | 54.69% | -1.29 | 1.174 | $14.26 |
| 2026-09-16 | 57.65% | -2.56 | 1.124 | $14.49 |
| 2026-09-15 | 56.95% | -1.29 | 1.208 | $15.00 |
| 2026-09-14 | 57.01% | +0.16 | 1.198 | $14.97 |
| 2026-09-11 | 59.64% | +0.27 | 1.145 | $14.34 |
| 2026-09-10 | 71.02% | -4.47 | 1.036 | $13.97 |
| 2026-09-09 | 56.33% | -2.02 | 1.235 | $13.88 |
| 2026-09-08 | 60.20% | -3.33 | 1.132 | $14.02 |
| 2026-09-04 | 58.38% | +0.20 | 1.120 | $14.43 |
| 2026-09-03 | 56.84% | -3.54 | 1.228 | $15.09 |
| 2026-09-02 | 52.14% | -1.61 | 1.281 | $14.55 |
| 2026-09-01 | 52.46% | -0.75 | 1.287 | $13.78 |
| 2026-08-31 | 57.55% | -3.88 | 1.177 | $13.72 |
| 2026-08-28 | 56.14% | -0.44 | 1.171 | $13.57 |
| 2026-08-27 | 56.99% | -1.75 | 1.157 | $13.42 |
| 2026-08-26 | 53.73% | -0.14 | 1.205 | $13.03 |
| 2025-10-22 | 88.21% | +2.15 | 0.756 | $53.89 |
| 2025-10-21 | 86.96% | +3.40 | 0.776 | $53.92 |
| 2025-10-20 | 86.47% | -3.22 | 0.791 | $52.50 |
| 2025-10-17 | 89.70% | +0.84 | 0.780 | $49.98 |
| 2025-10-16 | 93.31% | -0.05 | 0.742 | $49.90 |
| 2025-10-15 | 81.81% | +4.37 | 0.846 | $51.10 |
| 2025-10-14 | 89.34% | -0.78 | 0.765 | $50.73 |
| 2025-10-10 | 90.02% | -5.59 | 0.776 | $52.36 |
| 2025-10-09 | 86.48% | -8.49 | 0.786 | $54.09 |
| 2025-10-08 | 86.60% | -4.05 | 0.788 | $54.07 |
| 2025-10-07 | 68.87% | -3.53 | 0.991 | $53.49 |
| 2025-10-06 | 67.08% | -4.98 | 1.013 | $53.14 |
| 2025-10-03 | 59.72% | -3.92 | 1.122 | $51.55 |
| 2025-10-02 | 61.89% | -4.07 | 1.103 | $50.88 |
| 2025-10-01 | 55.71% | -2.77 | 1.229 | $49.32 |
| 2025-09-30 | 55.50% | -3.74 | 1.232 | $49.01 |
| 2025-09-29 | 51.78% | +1.82 | 1.317 | $49.64 |
| 2025-09-26 | 51.95% | -3.66 | 1.282 | $47.14 |
| 2025-09-25 | 54.19% | -3.85 | 1.252 | $46.76 |
| 2025-09-24 | 55.08% | -2.73 | 1.252 | $46.87 |
| 2025-09-23 | 54.35% | -3.75 | 1.288 | $46.86 |
| 2025-09-22 | 56.20% | +0.57 | 1.266 | $46.15 |
| 2025-09-19 | 53.78% | -4.93 | 1.283 | $44.47 |
| 2025-09-18 | 53.26% | -5.01 | 1.266 | $43.93 |
| 2025-09-17 | 52.74% | -1.58 | 1.255 | $45.37 |
| 2025-09-16 | 52.22% | -2.73 | 1.269 | $44.90 |
| 2025-09-15 | 50.34% | -4.31 | 1.303 | $45.54 |
| 2025-09-12 | 49.63% | -1.60 | 1.311 | $45.15 |
| 2025-09-11 | 47.14% | -0.33 | 1.371 | $45.24 |
| 2025-09-10 | 49.85% | -0.91 | 1.291 | $46.14 |
| 2025-09-09 | 44.26% | -0.58 | 1.363 | $52.40 |
| 2025-09-08 | 44.02% | +2.19 | 1.380 | $52.03 |
| 2025-09-05 | 43.24% | -1.89 | 1.382 | $52.07 |
| 2025-09-04 | 43.75% | +0.49 | 1.374 | $51.92 |
| 2025-09-03 | 43.07% | -1.42 | 1.372 | $53.77 |
| 2025-09-02 | 45.15% | -0.22 | 1.332 | $54.18 |
| 2025-08-29 | 42.61% | +0.39 | 1.392 | $54.66 |
| 2025-08-28 | 43.84% | +1.34 | 1.364 | $55.36 |
| 2025-08-27 | 42.93% | +1.37 | 1.386 | $52.65 |
| 2025-08-26 | 44.18% | -0.77 | 1.352 | $52.22 |
| 2025-08-25 | 43.62% | +0.67 | 1.372 | $52.37 |
| 2025-08-22 | 43.76% | +0.62 | 1.343 | $53.20 |
| 2025-08-21 | 44.67% | -0.11 | 1.316 | $52.30 |
| 2025-08-20 | 44.47% | -0.76 | 1.306 | $52.53 |
| 2025-08-19 | 44.77% | -0.20 | 1.295 | $52.53 |
| 2025-08-18 | 45.93% | -1.09 | 1.258 | $54.95 |
| 2025-08-15 | 43.51% | +1.49 | 1.300 | $52.12 |
| 2025-08-14 | 44.94% | -0.70 | 1.256 | $50.76 |
| 2025-08-13 | 45.44% | -2.14 | 1.220 | $54.36 |
| 2025-08-12 | 43.52% | +3.18 | 1.268 | $53.27 |
| 2025-08-11 | 49.46% | -4.37 | 1.021 | $53.18 |
| 2025-08-08 | 51.23% | -0.58 | 1.000 | $54.23 |
| 2025-08-07 | 71.28% | -0.13 | 0.784 | $88.33 |
| 2025-08-06 | 77.88% | +0.55 | 0.705 | $89.58 |
| 2025-08-05 | 72.06% | +1.88 | 0.781 | $87.70 |
| 2025-08-04 | 69.22% | +0.12 | 0.779 | $89.76 |
| 2025-08-01 | 72.41% | -0.76 | 0.757 | $86.08 |
| 2025-07-31 | 71.08% | -2.92 | 0.743 | $86.96 |
| 2025-07-30 | 69.19% | +7.43 | 0.755 | $86.42 |
| 2025-07-29 | 69.54% | -2.42 | 0.746 | $84.53 |
| 2025-07-28 | 66.66% | +1.87 | 0.757 | $88.46 |
| 2025-07-25 | 66.30% | +0.82 | 0.769 | $86.14 |
| 2025-07-24 | 65.69% | -0.08 | 0.780 | $85.00 |
| 2025-07-23 | 69.29% | +1.56 | 0.776 | $84.63 |
| 2025-07-22 | 73.69% | -2.99 | 0.727 | $81.67 |
| 2025-07-21 | 69.17% | -1.96 | 0.761 | $80.03 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 335 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 335 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
8d (2026-11-20) · 15d (2026-11-27) · 22d (2026-12-04)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 8d | 15d | 22d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 67.50% | — | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 60.47% | 59.74% | — |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 60.34% | 57.92% | 56.52% |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 60.50% | 58.56% | 56.44% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 59.74% | 56.39% | 57.01% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 59.12% | 56.29% | 56.97% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 59.36% | 56.61% | 56.60% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 59.82% | 57.82% | 56.35% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 60.27% | 59.53% | 57.54% |
| ATM | 60.82% | 59.63% | 57.88% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 61.26% | 59.45% | 57.31% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 61.28% | 59.17% | 56.82% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 61.03% | 58.78% | 56.46% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 60.82% | 58.63% | 57.19% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 61.00% | 58.57% | 57.89% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 61.48% | 58.71% | 57.00% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 61.44% | 59.45% | 57.64% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 61.02% | 60.94% | 59.77% |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 65.47% | 63.68% | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 8 | $15.70 | 60.82% | 61.00% | 59.74% | +1.26 | -0.45 | 14 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 | $15.72 | 59.63% | 58.57% | 56.39% | +2.18 | -2.16 | 14 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 | $15.72 | 57.88% | 57.89% | 57.01% | +0.87 | -0.43 | 12 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 | $15.74 | 56.63% | 58.16% | 55.53% | +2.63 | +0.21 | 11 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 | $15.80 | 54.00% | 55.27% | 53.36% | +1.92 | +0.32 | 7 |
| 2026-12-24 | 42 | $15.75 | 54.83% | 55.35% | 58.22% | -2.87 | +1.95 | 12 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 | $15.84 | 51.75% | 53.18% | 52.30% | +0.88 | +0.99 | 10 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 | $15.95 | 59.72% | 60.83% | 60.44% | +0.39 | +0.91 | 9 |
| 2027-04-16 | 155 | $16.08 | 61.25% | 62.15% | 60.69% | +1.47 | +0.17 | 7 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 | $16.18 | 61.04% | 63.51% | 61.55% | +1.95 | +1.49 | 9 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
10 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 8 天 | $15.70 | 60.82% | $15.76 | 14 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 天 | $15.72 | 59.63% | $15.83 | 14 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 天 | $15.72 | 57.88% | $15.88 | 12 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 天 | $15.74 | 56.63% | $15.94 | 11 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 天 | $15.80 | 54.00% | $16.03 | 7 |
| 2026-12-24 | 42 天 | $15.75 | 54.83% | $16.02 | 12 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 天 | $15.84 | 51.75% | $16.22 | 10 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 天 | $15.95 | 59.72% | $16.98 | 9 |
| 2027-04-16 | 155 天 | $16.08 | 61.25% | $17.42 | 7 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 天 | $16.18 | 61.04% | $18.08 | 9 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 56.19%
- 60 天
- 52.15%
- 90 天
- 56.53%
- 180 天
- 61.14%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 335 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 6 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 6 次中 2 次
- 33% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 15.1%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 57.9%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-09 | 收盘后 | 23.3% | +3.3% | 0.14× |
| 2026-11-05 | 未说明时间 | 4.9% | +0.9% | 0.19× |
| 2026-08-06 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-05-07 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-02-25 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-26 | 未说明时间 | — | — | — |
| 2025-11-06 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-08-07 | 收盘后 | 17.1% | -85.2% | 4.99× |
| 2025-05-08 | 收盘后 | 18.5% | -78.2% | 4.24× |
| 2025-02-12 | 收盘后 | 14.7% | -89.3% | 6.06× |
| 2024-11-07 | 收盘后 | 12.2% | -90.2% | 7.42× |
| 2024-08-08 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-05-08 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-02-15 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-11-09 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。