股票 · 期权分析
UAL 期权分析
数据截至 2026年11月12日(收盘)
- 标的收盘价
- $111.25
- 30D ATM IV
- 45.32%
- IV 百分位 · 1年
- 第 22
- 25Δ 风险逆转
- +4.27
- 期限斜率 90/30
- 0.992
▼ -0.91 pts 较前一交易日
概览
UAL 期权当前计入的 30 天平值隐含波动率为 45.3%,相当于未来一个月约 ±13.0% 的波动。这高于它过去一年 249 个交易日中 22% 的读数。
它的 25-delta put 比 call 的隐含波动率高 4.27 个波动率点,大致处在它自己过去一年区间的中部。
它的下一次财报在 2027-01-13(根据其财报周期估算)。
在最近 9 次财报中,期权市场平均计入了 ±7.9% 的波动,UAL 实际平均波动 27.2%,9 次中有 4 次落在计入的区间之内。
01 · 读数
当前读数
最近一个交易日的 30 天曲面,每个读数都放在它自身的历史里比较。
主要读数 · 30 天期限
- 30 天 ATM 隐含波动率ⓘ
- 45.32%
- 25-delta 风险逆转ⓘ
- +4.27
- 25-delta 蝶式价差ⓘ
- +0.06
- 期限结构斜率ⓘ
- 0.992
对应 30 天内约 ±13.0% 的波动，平常一天约 ±2.9%。
高于过去一年中 22% 的读数。
距平值同样远时，put 比 call的隐含波动率高 4.27 个点。
高于过去一年中 60% 的读数。
两翼的隐含波动率比平值高 0.06 个点。
90 天与 30 天期权的隐含波动率大致相同。
高于过去一年中 65% 的读数。
30 天隐含波动率处在什么位置
对比此前 249 个交易日(一年窗口)
- IV 百分位,1 年
- 22%
- IV 排名,1 年
- 13%
- IV 百分位,2 年
- 31%
- IV 排名,2 年
- 13%
排名是当前读数在窗口内最低与最高读数之间的位置,所以过去只要有一个极端值,之后的读数都会被压在一端附近。百分位是低于当前读数的交易日所占的比例,不受那个极端值有多极端的影响。窗口内少于 180 个交易日时,两者都不显示。
交易日明细
- 标的收盘价
- $111.25
- 30 天隐含远期价
- $112.34
- 60 天 ATM IV
- 44.64%
- 90 天 ATM IV
- 44.96%
- 180 天 ATM IV
- 45.76%
- 使用的到期日数
- 11
- 总未平仓量
- 519,637
- Put / call 未平仓量比
- 0.24
远期价由最接近平值的几个行权价上的 put-call 平价关系推出,而不是直接取标的收盘价。本页所有的价值状态(moneyness)和 delta 都以它为基准。
02 · 历史
读数是怎么走到这里的
存档窗口内的每个交易日,每次收盘一个点。
30 天平值隐含波动率
最近 335 个交易日
显示底层数据(最近 120 个)
| 交易日 | 30 天 ATM IV | 25-delta RR | 期限斜率 | 收盘价 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-12 | 45.32% | +4.27 | 0.992 | $111.25 |
| 2026-11-10 | 46.22% | +6.01 | 1.025 | $120.56 |
| 2026-11-09 | 48.36% | +4.20 | 0.980 | $120.38 |
| 2026-11-06 | 50.63% | +5.73 | 0.965 | $112.74 |
| 2026-11-05 | 55.68% | +4.76 | 0.895 | $110.49 |
| 2026-11-04 | 49.59% | +2.73 | 0.957 | $115.76 |
| 2026-11-03 | 49.41% | +2.37 | 0.950 | $107.21 |
| 2026-11-02 | 49.24% | +0.81 | 0.970 | $109.24 |
| 2026-10-30 | 49.72% | +2.58 | 0.962 | $104.24 |
| 2026-10-29 | 46.41% | +4.90 | 1.000 | $105.21 |
| 2026-10-28 | 48.03% | +2.66 | 1.014 | $103.43 |
| 2026-10-27 | 46.20% | +3.66 | 1.009 | $104.71 |
| 2026-10-26 | 48.84% | +0.65 | 0.894 | $100.69 |
| 2026-10-23 | 48.72% | +2.39 | 0.952 | $97.93 |
| 2026-10-22 | 47.66% | +3.92 | 0.975 | $102.00 |
| 2026-10-21 | 46.92% | +3.83 | 0.937 | $101.67 |
| 2026-10-20 | 49.17% | +2.23 | 0.905 | $97.77 |
| 2026-10-19 | 49.41% | +2.14 | 0.907 | $95.60 |
| 2026-10-16 | 48.66% | +3.55 | 0.897 | $96.10 |
| 2026-10-15 | 45.59% | +2.26 | 0.932 | $101.31 |
| 2026-10-14 | 47.51% | +3.18 | 0.893 | $98.96 |
| 2026-10-13 | 46.39% | +2.13 | 0.922 | $103.23 |
| 2026-10-09 | 46.27% | +2.85 | 0.936 | $107.46 |
| 2026-10-08 | 51.04% | +2.58 | 0.877 | $107.44 |
| 2026-10-07 | 50.73% | +0.73 | 0.880 | $110.17 |
| 2026-10-06 | 49.16% | +2.17 | 0.909 | $111.87 |
| 2026-10-05 | 49.22% | +1.91 | 0.889 | $110.00 |
| 2026-10-02 | 54.08% | +2.64 | 0.855 | $112.51 |
| 2026-10-01 | 53.42% | +5.02 | 0.889 | $111.78 |
| 2026-09-30 | 55.36% | +2.50 | 0.860 | $110.95 |
| 2026-09-29 | 52.83% | +1.67 | 0.898 | $112.65 |
| 2026-09-28 | 51.97% | +1.65 | 0.920 | $111.51 |
| 2026-09-25 | 53.53% | +1.53 | 0.863 | $113.99 |
| 2026-09-24 | 53.84% | +0.25 | 0.872 | $111.19 |
| 2026-09-23 | 53.47% | -0.70 | 0.862 | $110.72 |
| 2026-09-22 | 53.43% | +2.41 | 0.886 | $115.21 |
| 2026-09-21 | 52.16% | +1.30 | 0.881 | $114.39 |
| 2026-09-18 | 51.19% | +1.83 | 0.921 | $108.71 |
| 2026-09-17 | 49.69% | +1.25 | 0.940 | $107.64 |
| 2026-09-16 | 52.20% | +1.42 | 0.955 | $106.30 |
| 2026-09-15 | 51.86% | -0.31 | 0.923 | $106.92 |
| 2026-09-14 | 47.21% | +2.14 | 0.986 | $108.96 |
| 2026-09-11 | 47.74% | +1.66 | 0.956 | $109.82 |
| 2026-09-10 | 45.41% | +1.83 | 1.000 | $106.49 |
| 2026-09-09 | 49.66% | -1.47 | 0.944 | $107.12 |
| 2026-09-08 | — | — | — | $108.24 |
| 2026-09-04 | 45.79% | +3.17 | 0.936 | $111.38 |
| 2026-09-03 | 43.54% | +3.01 | 1.021 | $108.66 |
| 2026-09-02 | — | — | — | $108.35 |
| 2026-09-01 | — | — | — | $104.63 |
| 2026-08-31 | 40.44% | +2.74 | 1.091 | $107.99 |
| 2026-08-28 | 41.82% | +3.84 | 1.081 | $110.60 |
| 2026-08-27 | 43.07% | +3.81 | 1.000 | $112.39 |
| 2026-08-26 | 40.66% | +5.37 | 1.134 | $114.83 |
| 2025-10-22 | 46.23% | +2.99 | 0.976 | $96.27 |
| 2025-10-21 | 44.18% | +1.90 | 0.980 | $100.11 |
| 2025-10-20 | 47.11% | +3.42 | 0.943 | $101.29 |
| 2025-10-17 | 47.25% | +0.12 | 0.960 | $99.14 |
| 2025-10-16 | 53.95% | +1.35 | 0.850 | $98.19 |
| 2025-10-15 | 54.70% | +2.83 | 0.880 | $104.05 |
| 2025-10-14 | 54.92% | +2.96 | 0.872 | $103.15 |
| 2025-10-10 | 57.80% | +1.53 | 0.864 | $96.67 |
| 2025-10-09 | 51.24% | +2.37 | 0.894 | $101.34 |
| 2025-10-08 | 59.74% | +1.88 | 0.834 | $98.09 |
| 2025-10-07 | 54.72% | -0.84 | 0.874 | $96.65 |
| 2025-10-06 | 54.50% | +1.32 | 0.874 | $97.07 |
| 2025-10-03 | 52.56% | +2.08 | 0.887 | $95.33 |
| 2025-10-02 | 54.06% | +2.44 | 0.873 | $94.83 |
| 2025-10-01 | 55.41% | +3.60 | 0.875 | $93.15 |
| 2025-09-30 | 53.71% | +5.36 | 0.889 | $96.50 |
| 2025-09-29 | 56.54% | +0.69 | 0.847 | $98.64 |
| 2025-09-26 | 52.32% | +2.73 | 0.903 | $97.91 |
| 2025-09-25 | 55.20% | +4.11 | 0.882 | $99.15 |
| 2025-09-24 | 53.54% | +1.75 | 0.901 | $101.39 |
| 2025-09-23 | 54.32% | +4.05 | 0.864 | $104.13 |
| 2025-09-22 | 49.81% | +0.25 | 0.922 | $104.18 |
| 2025-09-19 | 49.15% | +2.24 | 0.915 | $106.31 |
| 2025-09-18 | 48.08% | +1.70 | 0.933 | $105.38 |
| 2025-09-17 | 50.28% | +0.98 | 0.909 | $105.51 |
| 2025-09-16 | 50.23% | +1.97 | 0.912 | $104.20 |
| 2025-09-15 | 48.43% | +0.96 | 0.934 | $104.55 |
| 2025-09-12 | 44.69% | -0.69 | 0.989 | $106.58 |
| 2025-09-11 | 43.29% | +0.30 | 1.007 | $109.36 |
| 2025-09-10 | 48.33% | +2.97 | 0.959 | $107.51 |
| 2025-09-09 | 45.72% | +2.08 | 0.986 | $105.65 |
| 2025-09-08 | 43.24% | +3.31 | 1.020 | $107.77 |
| 2025-09-05 | 43.21% | +3.55 | 1.032 | $106.59 |
| 2025-09-04 | 42.76% | +4.05 | 1.040 | $106.05 |
| 2025-09-03 | 44.76% | +3.64 | 0.998 | $106.16 |
| 2025-09-02 | 43.71% | -0.76 | 1.002 | $104.68 |
| 2025-08-29 | 42.54% | +1.05 | 1.020 | $105.00 |
| 2025-08-28 | 45.50% | +2.35 | 0.983 | $105.08 |
| 2025-08-27 | 41.13% | +1.72 | 1.055 | $104.21 |
| 2025-08-26 | 44.19% | +2.11 | 0.993 | $104.13 |
| 2025-08-25 | 43.56% | +1.33 | 1.019 | $102.34 |
| 2025-08-22 | 41.52% | +5.45 | 1.062 | $102.98 |
| 2025-08-21 | 46.67% | +2.97 | 0.970 | $97.19 |
| 2025-08-20 | 45.51% | +2.15 | 0.975 | $99.84 |
| 2025-08-19 | 44.62% | +1.97 | 0.993 | $102.19 |
| 2025-08-18 | 45.22% | +2.01 | 0.988 | $102.37 |
| 2025-08-15 | 43.31% | +2.12 | 1.017 | $100.93 |
| 2025-08-14 | 42.91% | +5.04 | 1.020 | $99.14 |
| 2025-08-13 | 41.72% | +5.09 | 1.051 | $99.79 |
| 2025-08-12 | 42.63% | +2.65 | 1.032 | $98.47 |
| 2025-08-11 | 43.69% | +3.13 | 1.038 | $89.33 |
| 2025-08-08 | 43.51% | +3.98 | 1.007 | $89.29 |
| 2025-08-07 | 41.15% | +3.28 | 1.091 | $87.98 |
| 2025-08-06 | 38.18% | +2.88 | 1.158 | $88.87 |
| 2025-08-05 | 41.03% | +3.91 | 1.101 | $87.66 |
| 2025-08-04 | 45.68% | +3.22 | 0.983 | $87.01 |
| 2025-08-01 | 43.01% | +3.69 | 1.065 | $84.57 |
| 2025-07-31 | 41.63% | +3.02 | 1.073 | $88.31 |
| 2025-07-30 | 42.18% | +4.16 | 1.029 | $90.24 |
| 2025-07-29 | 44.32% | -0.50 | 0.983 | $90.65 |
| 2025-07-28 | 37.96% | +3.87 | 1.121 | $92.43 |
| 2025-07-25 | 39.77% | +1.16 | 1.076 | $91.11 |
| 2025-07-24 | 39.37% | +2.24 | 1.099 | $89.73 |
| 2025-07-23 | 39.94% | +4.64 | 1.077 | $90.43 |
| 2025-07-22 | 40.08% | -0.46 | 1.074 | $90.78 |
| 2025-07-21 | 41.74% | +0.80 | 1.038 | $92.35 |
图表覆盖存档中的全部交易日,共 335 个。表格列出最近的 120 个。
25-delta 风险逆转
最近 335 个交易日
虚线标出零的位置,即 25-delta put 与 call 隐含波动率相同之处。
03 · 偏斜
偏斜曲线
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率,近月到期日
按 delta 排列的隐含波动率
8d (2026-11-20) · 15d (2026-11-27) · 22d (2026-12-04)
横轴是 call 的 delta。虚线中线右侧的读数取自该行权价上的虚值 put,波动率正是从这个合约的报价反解出来的。只有在保留下来的报价从两侧夹住该 delta 时才会画点;最后一个有成交的行权价之外一律不外推。
显示底层数据
| Delta | 8d | 15d | 22d |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5Δ 看涨 | 47.94% | — | — |
| 10Δ 看涨 | 48.39% | — | — |
| 15Δ 看涨 | 47.73% | — | — |
| 20Δ 看涨 | 47.18% | 44.06% | 43.23% |
| 25Δ 看涨 | 48.15% | 44.28% | 43.55% |
| 30Δ 看涨 | 47.39% | 44.52% | 44.23% |
| 35Δ 看涨 | 47.46% | 44.08% | 43.23% |
| 40Δ 看涨 | 46.36% | 44.51% | 44.42% |
| 45Δ 看涨 | 47.54% | 44.45% | 44.80% |
| ATM | 47.81% | 44.38% | 44.03% |
| 45Δ 看跌 | 48.59% | 43.84% | 47.96% |
| 40Δ 看跌 | 48.87% | 44.42% | 46.86% |
| 35Δ 看跌 | 48.51% | 43.53% | 46.98% |
| 30Δ 看跌 | 49.32% | 45.03% | 47.94% |
| 25Δ 看跌 | 49.95% | 46.18% | 48.20% |
| 20Δ 看跌 | 49.43% | — | 47.18% |
| 15Δ 看跌 | 50.84% | — | 49.42% |
| 10Δ 看跌 | 53.36% | — | — |
| 5Δ 看跌 | 55.81% | — | — |
各到期日的两翼读数
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | 25Δ put | 25Δ call | RR | 蝶式价差 | 报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 8 | $111.74 | 47.81% | 49.95% | 48.15% | +1.80 | +1.24 | 24 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 | $111.70 | 44.38% | 46.18% | 44.28% | +1.90 | +0.85 | 19 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 | $112.40 | 44.03% | 48.20% | 43.55% | +4.65 | +1.84 | 23 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 | $112.40 | 45.23% | 47.41% | 43.06% | +4.35 | +0.00 | 25 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 | $111.98 | 45.71% | 48.00% | 44.07% | +3.92 | +0.32 | 15 |
| 2026-12-24 | 42 | $112.25 | 45.70% | 46.54% | 42.49% | +4.05 | -1.18 | 25 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 | $112.44 | 44.48% | 47.10% | 42.61% | +4.49 | +0.38 | 17 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 | $113.43 | 45.30% | 47.67% | 43.09% | +4.59 | +0.08 | 26 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 | $115.44 | 45.95% | 47.53% | 45.06% | +2.46 | +0.35 | 28 |
| 2027-09-17 | 309 | $117.47 | 45.97% | 48.02% | 46.11% | +1.91 | +1.09 | 29 |
| 2027-12-17 | 400 | $117.03 | 46.78% | 46.25% | 47.31% | -1.06 | -0.01 | 41 |
上面每条曲线代表一个到期日。纵向位置是隐含波动率,横向位置是读数所取合约的 delta。对美股来说,曲线通常向右上方倾斜,也就是虚值 put 的隐含波动率高于距离相同的 call。
25-delta 风险逆转把这个斜率概括成一个数字:25-delta put 的波动率减去 25-delta call 的波动率。蝶式价差(butterfly)概括的是弯曲程度:两翼的平均值减去平值读数。
04 · 期限结构
期限结构
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
各到期日的平值隐含波动率
11 个上市到期日得出了可用读数
横轴是距到期天数的平方根,这是波动率本身所在的尺度。按方差计算平坦的曲线,在这里会画成一条直线,而不会在最近一周急剧弯折。
显示底层数据
| 到期日 | 天数 | 远期价 | ATM IV | ATM 行权价 | 使用的报价数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-20 | 8 天 | $111.74 | 47.81% | $112.02 | 24 |
| 2026-11-27 | 15 天 | $111.70 | 44.38% | $112.15 | 19 |
| 2026-12-04 | 22 天 | $112.40 | 44.03% | $113.06 | 23 |
| 2026-12-11 | 29 天 | $112.40 | 45.23% | $113.32 | 25 |
| 2026-12-18 | 36 天 | $111.98 | 45.71% | $113.14 | 15 |
| 2026-12-24 | 42 天 | $112.25 | 45.70% | $113.61 | 25 |
| 2027-01-15 | 64 天 | $112.44 | 44.48% | $114.41 | 17 |
| 2027-03-19 | 127 天 | $113.43 | 45.30% | $117.55 | 26 |
| 2027-06-17 | 217 天 | $115.44 | 45.95% | $122.91 | 28 |
| 2027-09-17 | 309 天 | $117.47 | 45.97% | $128.46 | 29 |
| 2027-12-17 | 400 天 | $117.03 | 46.78% | $131.94 | 41 |
恒定期限
在前后相邻的上市到期日之间按总方差插值
- 30 天
- 45.32%
- 60 天
- 44.64%
- 90 天
- 44.96%
- 180 天
- 45.76%
插值是对总方差做线性插值,而不是对波动率。直接对波动率插值,隐含的两个到期日之间的远期方差可能为负。超出最长上市到期日的期限会标为不可用,而不是外推。
期限结构斜率
最近 335 个交易日
虚线标出 1.00,即 90 天与 30 天平值波动率相等之处。在它上方,较长期限的波动率更高。
期限结构就是每个上市到期日的平值隐含波动率,按到期日有多远排开画出来。标的平稳时,它通常缓缓向上倾斜,因为期限越长,能容纳的不确定性越多。
当市场为某个有确定日期的事件定价时,它会倒挂:包含预定公告的到期日,除了平常交易的方差之外还要加上该事件的方差,所以较短的合约可能显示出比较长合约更高的波动率。
05 · 财报
财报
每次财报前期权计入了多大的波动,以及实际发生了什么
下一次财报
期权定价与实际结果对照
最近 9 次财报
- 落在隐含区间内
- 9 次中 4 次
- 44% —— 定价完全准确的事件大约是 68%
- 平均隐含波动幅度
- 7.9%
- 平均实际波动幅度
- 27.2%
- 绝对值
历次财报
最新的在前。隐含波动幅度为一个标准差,按发布前一个交易日的价格计算。
| 财报日 | 时段 | 隐含 ± | 实际 | 实际 / 隐含 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | 未说明时间 | 4.5% | +0.3% | 0.07× |
| 2026-10-20 | 收盘后 | 7.3% | +4.0% | 0.55× |
| 2026-10-14 | 未说明时间 | 3.4% | +2.4% | 0.69× |
| 2026-07-15 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-04-21 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2026-01-20 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2025-10-15 | 收盘后 | 8.3% | +10.4% | 1.25× |
| 2025-07-16 | 收盘后 | 8.9% | +29.8% | 3.33× |
| 2025-07-09 | 收盘后 | 6.7% | +43.2% | 6.48× |
| 2025-04-15 | 收盘后 | 10.8% | +71.4% | 6.61× |
| 2025-01-21 | 未说明时间 | 11.8% | +3.9% | 0.33× |
| 2024-10-15 | 收盘后 | 9.4% | +79.3% | 8.40× |
| 2024-07-17 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-04-16 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2024-01-22 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
| 2023-10-17 | 收盘后 | — | — | — |
隐含波动幅度取自财报日之后第一个到期日的平值跨式组合(straddle),换算成一个标准差的波动,再除以远期价。实际波动幅度是跨越该事件的收盘到收盘收益率,从发布前一个交易日量到发布后一个交易日。
已经过去的财报日期来自公司自己提交的 8-K 文件,是准确的。尚未到来的日期,要么是公司已公布的,要么是根据其财报周期作出的估计。